Federal Reserve Research Report: The probability of the benchmark interest rate falling to zero in the medium term is 9%
【Federal Reserve Research Report: The probability of the benchmark interest rate falling to zero in the medium term is 9%】According to a report issued by researchers at the New York Fed, including New York Fed President John Williams, the Federal Reserve cannot assume that its benchmark lending rate will not fall to zero at some point in the future. They noted in a blog post released on Monday that the probability of the federal funds rate reaching the so-called 'zero lower bound' (ZLB) within the next seven years is 9%, primarily due to the current high uncertainty around interest rates. Williams and his co-authors wrote, 'Compared to the past decade, current data shows a higher expected level of future interest rates. However, due to increased uncertainties in recent times, the risk of reaching the zero lower bound in the medium to long term remains significant, similar to levels seen in 2018.'