Core conclusion: Tonight is more likely to test 2500 rather than rise to 2580, but the 2549 area is a key short-term watershed.
Here is a detailed analysis:
Heavy pressure above:
The document clearly lists the 'pressure' area, with the highest point at 2604.82.
The current latest transaction price is around 2549 (the document ends with 2549.05), with significant space to 2580 (about 30 points).
Sell orders show a clear resistance level at 2577.13 (large sell orders), which constitutes a direct upward barrier. Only by breaking this level can we further challenge 2580.
Even if it breaks 2577, there is still strong pressure at 2604.82 above. Without significant positive stimuli, it will be very difficult to quickly break through these two pressure levels to reach 2580 tonight.
The key support below is dense (2549 area):
Buy orders are extremely concentrated in the range of 2549.29 - 2549.49, forming a significant support zone (prices: 2549.49, 2549.48, 2549.47, 2549.45, 2549.40, 2549.39, 2549.37, 2549.36, 2549.30, and there is a large order of 100k at 2549.29).
This area is marked as a 'watershed', indicating its significant technical meaning. This is the core battleground for bulls and bears.
If this dense support zone is effectively breached (especially with increased volume breaking below 2549.29), the price will lose an important barrier.
Support levels and downward targets:
The document mentions 'first round of scattered support' and 'second round of testing support'. This indicates that the market is looking for and testing support levels.
After breaking below the 2549 area, the support levels visible below are:
2535.22 (Buy order price level)
2520.00 (Buy order price level)
2504.87 (Pressure/Support list at 23.6% position)
2480.00 (Buy order price level)
2460.00 (Buy order price level)
The document title directly indicates 'pressure', while the support levels below are clearly more, and the support level near 2500 (2504.87) is relatively lower structurally.
Market Structure and Momentum:
"Crocodile mouth contraction" usually indicates reduced market volatility, weakened trend momentum, and a consolidation state, which may signal an impending choice of direction.
"委比: -0.09%" shows that sell orders are slightly more than buy orders, but the difference is minimal, and market sentiment is relatively neutral and cautious.
There is a 'liquidation bomb' mark (combined with the price of 2549.05), indicating that this area may be a concentration zone for liquidation chips. If the price effectively breaks below this area, it may trigger long stop losses and accelerate downward.
Key points for bulls and bears:
Bullish defense point: 2549 area. If it holds here, the price may attempt a slight rebound or maintain fluctuations, but the resistance at 2580 is huge.
Bearish force point: Effectively breaking below the 2549 area (especially 2549.29). After breaking below, the targets below will point to 2535, 2520, and significantly increase the likelihood of testing 2500 (even 2480) tonight.
Comprehensive judgment:
The possibility of rising to 2580 is low: The pressure levels above (2577.13, 2604.82) are clear and close, and there is currently a lack of strong upward momentum and market sentiment support. Significant positive news is needed to drive the price to break through these resistances.
There is a possibility of dropping to 2500, which needs close attention: The current price is at a key support zone (2549 area). If this dense support zone is effectively breached by bearish forces tonight (accompanied by increased trading volume), due to the clear levels of support below (2535, 2520, 2504.87) and the risk of liquidation (liquidation bomb), there is a high probability that the price will further test the 2500 mark (or around 2504.87) as one possible path.
Core observation point: The outcome of the battle for the 2549 area. This is the lifeline of tonight's market. If it holds, there will be fluctuations or weak rebounds; if it fails, it will open up downward space.
Suggestion:
Pay close attention to the price performance and trading volume changes in the 2549 area (especially 2549.29-2549.30). If the price continues to operate below this area and rebounds weakly, or if there is a volume breakout below, the downside risk will sharply increase, making 2500 a more likely target. Conversely, if it can firmly hold this area, it may maintain a fluctuating pattern, but a push to 2580 will still require stronger momentum. Be sure to pay attention to the impact of sudden market news.
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