#TrumpTariffs

🗓️ Timeline & Scope

April 2, 2025 (“Liberation Day”): Trump used emergency IEEPA powers to announce a universal 10% tariff on all imports beginning April 5, with reciprocal tariffs (up to ~50%) against specific countries starting April 9 .

A 90-day moratorium paused the latter, expiring July 9 .

Average U.S. tariff rates soared from ~2.5% pre-2025 to ~27% by April, settling at ~15.8% by mid-June .

In parallel, he raised steel/aluminum tariffs to 50% and ordered broad auto tariffs at 25% .

📌 Key Policies & Impacts

From August 1, countries lacking new deals will face original April/May tariffs, ranging from 10% baseline up to 70% in some cases .

Trump warned that any country seen aligning with BRICS may face an additional 10% tariff .

As of July 7, the U.S. is issuing tariff-notification letters to about 12 countries, enforceable from August 1 .

So far, China, UK, Vietnam have negotiated reduced-tariff deals; negotiations are ongoing with Canada, EU, India, Thailand, Japan, South Korea .

💵 Economic Effects

Tariff-generated revenue surged to $24.2 billion in May, a 4× YoY increase—average rate ~8.8%, with China tariff average ~48% .

A JPMorgan Chase analysis warns mid-sized U.S. firms could see $82 billion in increased costs—likely passed to consumers (50–60%) .

Consumer prices could rise ~2.3%, costing ~$3,800/year per U.S. household; GDP growth forecasts have been reduced .

Volatility underwriting: S&P 500 & Nasdaq rebounded after tariff pause, though risks persist if tariffs rise .

⚠️ Legal & Political Context

The Court of International Trade ruled “Liberation Day” tariffs under IEEPA unconstitutional on May 28—but the ruling is stayed pending appeal; other tariff legalities remain unaffected .

A U.S. Court of Appeals reinstated these tariffs shortly after .

Critics caution the unilateral use of emergency powers could undermine trust in institutions and rattle markets.