#TrumpTariffs

Main Measures

1. Steel & Aluminum tariffs

Initially set at 25% (Feb–Mar 2025), then doubled to 50% on June 4, 2025, under Section 232 .

Exemption for UK remains at 25% until July 9 under the Economic Prosperity Deal .

Applies only to the metal content; other parts still incur additional tariffs .

2. Broad “reciprocal” tariffs

From April 2, 2025, a baseline 10% tariff was applied to all imports from countries lacking deals, with steeper rates (up to 70%) for some .

China saw very high rates (up to 125% at peak, later moderated to ~51%) .

3. Country-specific surcharges & “fentanyl” tariffs

25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico imports starting March 4, 2025, including energy from Canada .

Additional tariffs targeting China, India, Vietnam, Thailand, EU, Japan, BRICS-related countries, and others under multiple executive orders .

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🔍 Why It Matters

Economic impact

The average U.S. household faces ~$1,200 in extra costs by 2025 .

According to Penn Wharton, long-term GDP may decline ~6% and wages ~5%—with ~$22,000 in lifetime losses for middle-income households .

JPMorgan estimates ~$82 billion in extra cost for mid-sized U.S. firms; much likely passed on to consumers .

Global ripple effects

Imports from China plunged 43% in May; goods rerouted via Southeast Asia, triggering new U.S. duties on rerouted items .

Financial markets face volatility with inflation and GDP growth forecasts under pressure (Fed, OECD revised downward) .

Legal and political pushback

A court struck down the “Liberation Day” tariffs under IEEPA, but steel/aluminum tariffs under Section 232 remain intact .

Ongoing negotiations with the EU, UK, India, Japan, Canada and others—July 9 and August 1 are key decision points .

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🧭 Outlook

Negotiations in play

Trade deals with UK and Vietnam are already in effect; preliminary understandings with China, EU, Canada, India, Thailand, Japan, South Korea under negotiation .

Failure to strike deals could lead to full reversion to April tariff levels by August 1.

Market watch

Investors are nervously awaiting clarity; threats of broad 10–70% tariffs for non-agreeing countries loom, potentially triggering stagflation .

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✅ Summary

Trump has sharply escalated tariffs in 2025: steel/aluminum at 50%, broad import tariffs from April 2, and specific surcharges tied to “reciprocal” and “fentanyl” initiatives.

The effects are significant: higher prices, supply-chain disruption, slower growth, and increased business costs.

Court challenges have limited some unilateral actions—but many tariffs remain.

The next milestones: July 9 (end of 90‑day suspensions) and August 1 (potential broader implementations).