Second Half of 2025 U.S. Stock Market's Two Major Leverage Points:
Tariff Policy Renewal + AI Infrastructure Expansion, July Decides Everything!
🔥 1. Tariff Suspension: The "Policy Lifeline" in Mid-July
Current Policy: In April 2025, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of additional tariffs on 75 "non-retaliatory" countries (such as Australia, the UK, and Singapore), leading to a 12% single-day surge in NASDAQ.
Key Date in July: If the policy is renewed (by mid-July), the cost pressure on consumer goods and manufacturing will significantly decrease, and supply chain stability will improve; if interrupted, the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico may be reinstated, impacting corporate profits.
Focus of the Game: Canada has committed $1.3 billion for border plans, and Mexico has dispatched an additional 10,000 National Guard troops for patrols, but Trump retains the “option to increase tariffs as necessary.”
⚡ 2. AI Infrastructure: Trillion-Dollar Capital Expenditure Supporting Tech Stocks
"Stargate" Plan: Trump partners with OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle to launch a $500 billion AI infrastructure investment, with the first data centers established in Texas, aiming to create 100,000 jobs.
Arms Race Among Giants: In 2025, the combined AI capital expenditures of the four giants—Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google—will exceed $320 billion (up 46% year-on-year), focusing on data centers and inference computing power.
📈 3. U.S. Stock Market Trends: Policy Implementation = 5,500 Points for S&P, 20,000 Points for NASDAQ?
Optimistic Scenario: If tariffs are renewed + AI expenditures are realized, threefold benefits resonate:
→ Tech Stocks: Explosive demand for computing power (Azure AI revenue contribution increases by 13%);
→ Consumer/Manufacturing Stocks: Decreased tariff costs boost profit margins;
→ Market Sentiment: Expectations of loose liquidity support valuations.
Target Levels:
S&P 500 aims for 5,500 (currently around 5,200, +6% potential);
NASDAQ aims for 20,000 points (currently around 18,500, +8% potential).
Risk Warning: If tariff negotiations break down in July or AI expenditure returns are below expectations (such as pressure on profits from DeepSeek open-source models), it may trigger a valuation correction.
💎 Conclusion: Policy Direction Determines Success or Failure, Keep a Close Eye on Mid-July!
The Core Logic of "Trump Economics":
🔸 Tariff Leverage → Protect Domestic Industries + Force Allies to Concede;
🔸 Fiscal Infusion → Focus on "America First" Tracks (AI, Energy, Chips).