CryptoQuant: When the Bitcoin 30-day funding rate percentile approaches 50%, it may indicate a temporary bottom
CryptoQuant Chief Analyst Axel Adler Jr's latest research has found a key leading indicator in the Bitcoin market, which is the 30-day funding rate percentile of a major exchange. When this indicator falls below the 50% threshold, it often signals that a market bottom may have formed.
Historical data shows that when this indicator drops to around 50%, it typically indicates the formation of a temporary bottom. This pattern has been validated four times in the past two years: in September 2023, May 2024, September 2024, and most recently in April 2025. Each time the funding rate reached this critical level, the Bitcoin price subsequently experienced significant upward movement.
The most recent validation is particularly noteworthy. After the funding rate indicator hit bottom in April 2025, Bitcoin began a strong rebound path, with BTC price rising to a historic high of $112,000 in the following month.
It is noteworthy that the current indicator remains in a neutral range at 54%, suggesting that BTC's upward momentum has not yet been exhausted, and the market is still in a healthy state.
Analysts point out that the next stage requires close attention to the 30-day funding rate approaching the 80% level, as this threshold usually indicates overheated market sentiment, which could potentially trigger a market correction risk.
In summary, this finding by CryptoQuant analysts provides investors with a unique window for observing market sentiment. The funding rate percentile indicator not only validates the intrinsic correlation between derivatives market sentiment and price trends but also establishes a quantifiable market thermometer.
At the same time, its predicted bottoms have been empirically validated across multiple cycles, providing investors with an objective basis for judging market turning points. As market maturity increases, this type of on-chain data-based quantitative analysis is reshaping our understanding of the cryptocurrency market.
