The market is currently in a tug-of-war between policy expectations and risk events. After a slight adjustment over the weekend, BTC and ETH experienced a slight rebound in the first week of the second half of the year, with market capitalization returning to around $3.44 trillion, indicating some recovery in market sentiment, although the overall pattern remains volatile.
On the news front, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the $3.4 trillion "Great Beautiful Plan" proposed by Trump, and the business-friendly policy inclination has boosted bullish expectations in the market. However, this week is packed with risk events—energy data, central bank minutes, the expiration of the tariff buffer period, and U.S. Treasury auctions may exacerbate market volatility.
Among these, the key point is the "buffer period" for reciprocal tariffs on July 9: if Trump chooses to postpone, market sentiment may further warm; if the tariffs are imposed as planned, risk assets may face short-term pressure.
From a technical perspective, BTC is once again testing the $11,000 mark, and ETH is also challenging $2,600 again, but short-term trends remain highly dependent on U.S. political news outcomes, with significant volatility expected.
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