#TrumpTariffs

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🇺🇸 1. What’s happening now

Warning letters & pending tariffs: The administration plans to send letters to trading partners outlining prospective tariff rates—ranging as high as 70%, with a base of 10–20%—unless new deals are secured. These will go out ahead of an August 1, 2025 deadline (moving past an earlier July 9 deadline) .

Deals & truce in progress: Negotiations have yielded trade truce agreements with the UK, Vietnam, and China, while talks continue with the EU to avert sweeping tariffs of up to 50% .

Mixed signals stirring markets: Conflicting statements about scope and timing have unsettled markets, with analysts deeming the strategy more theatrical than policy-focused .

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📊 2. Economic impact so far

Revenue windfall vs costs:

The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated Trump's April tariffs will cost households an average of $1,200 annually by 2025 .

The Congressional Budget Office projects these tariffs will narrow the federal deficit by $2.8 trillion over 10 years—at the expense of slower growth, higher inflation (~+0.4 pp), and weakened purchasing power .

Businesses under pressure:

A JPMorgan analysis estimates mid-sized U.S. firms are bearing $82 billion in added costs, likely passing 50–60% of that burden to consumers .

The manufacturing sector’s ISM index remains in contraction (49.0%) for a fourth month, signaling persistent sluggishness .

Higher costs hit agriculture, construction, electronics, and logistics hardest .

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🌎 3. Wider global ripple effects

Reciprocal tariffs on Canadian/Mexican goods have disrupted North American trade, prompting retaliatory tariffs and stock market volatility .

EU exposure: Without a deal, U.S. exports to Europe could fall by 8–66%, versus just 0.6–1.1% for EU exports to the U.S. — while U.S. GDP may drop ~0.7%, compared to ~0.3% for the EU .

Global uncertainty has led many firms to pause M&A deals, restructure supply chains, or ramp up inventory buffers .

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⚖️ 4. Legal and future outlook

Court challenge: A U.S.