Today, let me tell a story.
Historian Huang Renyu recalled a special experience from 1945 in his autobiography. At that time, he was in Shanghai as a 'receiving official,' just in time for a brief and opportunity-filled window.
Taking advantage of the huge difference in purchasing power between Shanghai and Liuzhou (tenfold difference), he seized the opportunity through a simple 'arbitrage' operation:
First, he exchanged legal tender for gold in Shanghai, then took a U.S. military plane back to Liuzhou, exchanged the gold back for legal tender, and then returned to Shanghai with this 'appreciated' legal tender to exchange for gold... This cycle allowed assets to achieve a hundredfold increase in a short time.
Similar 'opportunities in chaos' also appeared in post-war Japan. During the land reform led by MacArthur, money was extremely scarce, leading to absurd situations where the price of a cup of coffee could buy an acre of land. However, after the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950, the Japanese stock market experienced a brief crash and then embarked on a bull market that lasted forty years.
Huang Renyu concluded: 'Chaos is a ladder, and it waits for the prepared to climb it.' Many complex, subtle, and contradictory phenomena are difficult for the public to understand, making them hard to spread widely; this is what he referred to in his book as 'anti-memetics.'
However, truly understanding these complex concepts often brings huge and seemingly easy profit opportunities.
For example, when bad news in the U.S. macroeconomy leads to a sharp decline in the stock market, this may precisely be a great opportunity to make a fortune. The reason is that bad news usually prompts the Federal Reserve to adopt loose monetary policies (such as printing money) and the Treasury to launch aggressive fiscal stimulus plans to stabilize the economy.
The paradox here is that at certain times, the latest financial data, corporate earnings, and profit reports you see every day may all be bad news, yet stock prices may rise instead of fall.
Behind this are two forces at work:
On one hand, the market expects that monetary and fiscal stimulus will flood in, and hot money begins to flow into risk assets;
On the other hand, new stimulus policies themselves mean that the financial situation of many companies is expected to improve in the future.
The cryptocurrency market is also full of volatility and 'chaos.' During times of market panic and price declines, it often presents an excellent opportunity for entry based on expectations of future policy stimulus and capital inflows.
To seize these opportunities, one must understand the complex interaction between macro dynamics and market psychology, identifying the hidden upward momentum driven by capital flows and policy expectations behind the bad news.