GM🫡 Even with the typhoon approaching, the market continues to operate, and we must be well prepared! Here’s this week's #BeierMondayReport, and I welcome everyone to leave comments to discuss your thoughts with me!

[Conclusion First]

  1. The market has set the tone that there will be no interest rate cut in July, with the probability of a cut in September currently around 67%. If a rate cut can be successfully carried out in September, it will benefit the risk market.

  2. In the short term, attention can be paid to the liquidity liquidation points above $111,000~$113,000; on the downside, one can pay attention to the high turnover area of $102,000~$104,000, and the key support area at $92,000.

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[Detailed Content Here ⬇️]

  • Last week, the U.S. released data on non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates, which has basically set the tone that there will be no rate cut in July. The next rate cut meeting will be held in September, and the market currently expects the probability of a cut to be around 67%, still waiting for data support in August and September to initiate a rate cut plan.

  • This week, besides the U.S. gradually announcing the results of tariff negotiations, the biggest news is that Musk will organize the 'American Party', which is expected to have a significant impact on U.S. politics and economy. Especially since the current risk market's capacity is relatively low, any slight movements can easily affect market trends.

  • The Sosovalue data shows that the current Fear and Greed Index has slightly increased to 'Greed'. The market value of stablecoins continues to grow steadily, and the inflow of funds into BTC ETFs remains stable. The option volatility has slightly increased; the ∆25 Skew data continues to show a slightly bearish trend, and the green leaf long leverage positions have not changed significantly.

  • The BTC price continues to hold above the $100,000 mark. From the perspective of volume distribution, the current price remains near the VAH since November 2024 and the POC price from April 2025. There are two strong support ranges below: one is $92,000~$95,000, and the other falls between $80,000~$84,000. From the liquidation map, after clearing the $108,000 shorts last week, a large number of shorts have started to stack in the $111,000~$113,000 range, which may be the target liquidation point for the price.