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1. Market context

Current price: ~$4.50 per APT, with intraday range between $4.37–4.53.

Recent trend: in downward channel this year, has fallen from ~$15 (Nov 2024) to ~$4.5.

Upcoming catalysts:

Important token unlock: July 12, 2025 melody: release of $32M (≈6.8M APT, 1.05% supply), potential selling pressure.

Macro context: consolidation in cryptos, flows in BTC ETFs, and economic calendar (Fed minutes).

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2. Technical analysis

Key supports: $4.00 – $4.20 (psychological range, close to weekly low).

Resistances: ~$4.89 (50-day SMA), then ~$6.39 (200-day SMA).

Indicators:

RSI ~44 ➜ slight bearish to neutral bias.

Operating below 50 and 100-day moving averages, reinforcing the dominant bearish trend.

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3. Trading strategy (spot)

🎯 Short term (days – 1–2 weeks)

Bearish scenario: if opening after the unlock breaks below $4.20, consider:

Short entry via spot/sell order.

Target: first support at $4.00; cut losses if it recovers $4.50.

Bullish/contrarian scenario:

If it bounces from $4.00–$4.20 with increased volume, consider partial buy with stop-loss just below the support.

Partial targets: $4.50–$4.60, then $4.89 where moving average pressure releases.

📈 Medium term (1–3 months)

Staggered entry: buy on dips towards $3.80–$4.00 (if it occurs), averaging down.

Stop-loss: well below recent lows (~$3.80).

Targets: $4.89 (50-SMA), then $6.00–$6.40 (200-SMA).

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4. Risk management

Do not risk more than 2–3% of capital per trade.

Use predefined stop-losses, adjusting them after gains.

Split positions: 30% in short term, 70% for medium term.

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5. Fundamentals and monitoring

Network developments: ecosystem growth (currently ~192 projects) and partnerships with Microsoft, Google Cloud.

Macro events: Fed publication, token unlock closure (July 12), ETF announcements.

On-chain & volumes: monitor accumulation or distribution behavior after unlock.

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6. Alerts and adjustments

If the price breaks above $4.89 and holds with good demand, shift strategy towards a more bullish bias.

In violent drop below $3.80, rebuild support levels again.

APT predictions vary: CoinCodex expects a drop to $3.37 in August (~-25%); more optimistic projections place it at $30-$55 (2025-2030) if the network achieves significant adoption.

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✅ Summary of the plan

Horizon Key action Entry Stop-loss Target

Short term Strategy below $4.20 after unlock Sell or buy depending on the bounce ~5% below/below $4.00 $4.00 → $4.50–$4.60

Medium term Scale purchases with bearish trend $3.80–$4.00 < $3.80 $4.89, then $6.00–6.40

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7. Consolidating the strategy

1. Calendar: prioritize next week after unlock (July 12–19).

2. Position size: 2–3% of capital per trade.

3. Diversification: consider complementing with 10% in BTC or ETH for portfolio balance.

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8. Immediate action

Activate alerts on your platform for levels $4.20, $4.00, and $4.89.

Check volumes and sentiment after the unlock.

Stay alert to macro calendar news.

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✅ This plan merges technical analysis, risk management, and fundamental monitoring. It requires discipline and continuous adjustment according to market evolution.

#Spot #StrategicTrading #trading #APT $APT