Be cautious of a pullback after the TON surge! Capture key shorting points to avoid FOMO traps!
Current TON price is 2.912, up 6.12% in the last 24 hours, but RSI is overbought (70.21), trading volume is insufficient (compared to 0.887), and there is a net outflow of funds, indicating a possible short-term pullback. It is recommended to short on highs, entering around 2.912, with a stop loss at 2.98, target at 2.856, with a risk-reward ratio of 0.82:1. Risks: Overbought correction, insufficient liquidity; if it breaks 3.00, the strategy will be invalid; position size ≤2%, avoid low liquidity periods.
Technical Analysis (Based on 4-hour framework)
• Price Status: Bollinger Band position at 71.92% near the upper band (3.029), strong overbought signal; below MA200 (2.837) and holding cost (2.828), supporting an upward trend.
• Market Strength: Trading volume compared to 0.887 < 1, upward movement without volume, risk of false breakout; open interest decreased (24-hour contract volume increased by 2026.7%, but net funds outflow), smart money long-short ratio decreased to 1.5607 (bullish weakening); no major news impact.
• Key Levels: Support at 2.856 (buyer liquidity 328,510 USDT), resistance at 2.968 (seller liquidity 202,714 USDT); buy-sell pressure ratio at 1.208, buyers dominate but may exhaust, total value of buy orders in the near area at 216,415 USDT > sell orders 167,236 USDT, liquidity gap near 2.968 is likely to trigger a pullback.
Market Cycle Analysis
Currently in the mid-top area of a bull market, RSI is overbought and funds are flowing out, possibly turning to short-term adjustments or fluctuations.
Trading Strategy
• Entry Points: Aggressive at 2.912 (current price), conservative at 2.95-2.96 (near resistance).
• Stop Loss Point: 2.98 (over resistance level).
• Target Level: 2.856 (strong support).
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 0.82:1 (calculated for short direction).
• Risk Warning: Market risks include overbought corrections and insufficient trading volume; invalidation condition is a price break above 3.00; operation position size ≤2%, avoid low liquidity periods during Asian night.
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