$ETH 2025 Macro Setup: The Calm Before the Parabolic Storm :
1. Historical Fractal – Repeating the 2016-2017 Pattern
Chart 1 (2016–2017 Era):
Shows a "fake wave" (false rally), followed by a corrective dip.
ETH touched the logarithmic regression bands and then launched vertically.
A classic accumulation to expansion cycle.
Chart 2 (Current Cycle – 2023–2025):
Mirrors the 2016 pattern almost identically:
Fake wave during 2024.
Strong dip back to the log regression support (highlighted red circle).
Now consolidating at a key takeoff zone.
Conclusion: ETH is following the exact behavior of the 2016 cycle, currently sitting at the takeoff zone before a potential parabolic breakout.
2. Chart 3: Accumulation & ETH/BTC Signal
Upper Chart (Price Action):
ETH has been ranging since 2022 inside a wide accumulation box.
Shows higher lows, forming a long-term ascending triangle.
This suggests smart money accumulation before a breakout.
✅ Lower Chart (ETHBTC Z-Score):ETH/BTC Z-Score is near -2.09, a historical low.
ETH is undervalued against BTC, similar to pre-rally periods in the past.Every time this Z-score hit similar levels, ETH followed with strong outperformance.
This indicates that ETH is likely to outperform BTC in the next cycle.
Pro Tip:
This structure is a fractal replay — a method where historical price patterns repeat in similar psychological and structural ways.Your charts captured that perfectly.
Final Summary as a Pro Analyst:ETH is in an undervalued state based on historical regression and ETHBTC ratio.
Price is respecting the same behavior as the 2016–2017 cycle.Accumulation zone is clearly visible between $1,200–$2,300.
If price breaks $4,867, we could see parabolic expansion toward $8K–$12K.