Here is an analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) and trading recommendations for this week:
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🧭 Current situation
• Current price ~ 107,900 $, slightly retreating (~0.2%) after a rise during the session.
• The currency is moving within a resistance range between 108,000–109,000 $, this level has been tested several times without a clear break.
• Initial support at ~106,400–106,000 $, with stronger support forming in the 103–104 $ region as shown in the 4-hour analysis.
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📈 Forecasts and technical analysis
• Rosenberg Research sees an opportunity for a rise of up to 25% if resistance at 114,000 $ is broken, based on targeted fundamental factors like increased institutional liquidity and expectations of interest rate cuts.
• FXStreet & Forex.com affirm the bullish outlook, with some potential fluctuations before breaking high levels like 115,000–125,000 $.
• Independent analysts (EmmaWeb3) expect short-term moving averages to cross positively (Golden Cross), indicating a long-term target around 165,000 $ by mid-2026.
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🎯 Recommendations for this week
Scenario Entry Points Exit Points Stop Loss Point
Bullish > 108,000 $ 112,000–114,000 $ 106,500 $
Temporary decline < 106,400 $ 104,000–106,000 $ 105,500 $
Range trading between 106,500–108,500 $ at range limits Reduce quantity or step back to wait
• Balanced strategy: Buy near support at 106,400–106,000 $ with a tight stop-loss, and partially sell near 108,500–109,000 $ to take advantage of market fluctuations.
• Potential bullish breakout after strongly surpassing 109,000–110,000 $, opening the way towards 114,000 $, so the stop-loss can be raised to the entry point.
• Avoid excessive leverage especially before interest rate data releases or upcoming “Crypto Week” legislation, which could cause sudden volatility.
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📊 Fundamental and institutional factors
• Large inflows into **spot Bitcoin ETFs** (over 11–45 billion dollars in several months) support upward potential.
• Institutional and government entry—such as the announcement of a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the United States—enhances medium-term confidence.
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⚠️ Risks to watch out for
• “Old Bitcoin” wallets may move (such as a 14-year-old wallet that was recently moved worth 2 billion $), which could cause a supply surge if sold in the open market.
• Potential legislative developments during “Crypto Week” in the United States may create strong volatility in upcoming trades.
• Possible decline in U.S. interest rates could support risk assets, including Bitcoin, but any delay or unclear signals from the Federal Reserve could change the trend.
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✅ Summary
• Short term (weekly): Sideways trading between ~106,400 and 109,000 $; conservative buy positions can be opened near support with a clear stop-loss strategy, and profits taken near resistance.
• Medium term (1–3 months): A bullish breakout is likely from the 114–125 $ area, especially if the market enters a new wave of institutional liquidity.
• Major targets: Some institutions expect the price to reach 130–200 $ by the end of the year, with a longer timeframe hinting at even 165 $ by mid-2026.
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