Many people fantasize about achieving 'selling at the bull market peak, buying at the bear market low' in the crypto world, but this idea itself has logical flaws. The definitions of bull and bear markets are always the result of retrospective analysis; when in the cycle, no one can accurately predict the market turning point.
Using fixed values (such as '100,000 is the bull top, 70,000 is the bear bottom') to apply to future market conditions is essentially carving a boat to seek a sword — the extreme fluctuations in the market often exceed expectations, and most people who profit from this 'strategy' are just lucky.
In the market, the only two things you can control are: when to buy, when to sell, and the position size. As for price trends, it has never been something that personal will can determine.
Looking back in hindsight seems clear (for example, looking back now and thinking '10 million should have been sold'), but at that time, you could not judge whether it would drop to 50,000 or rise to 200,000 in the future. Therefore, the concept of 'selling at the bull and buying at the bear' is fundamentally wrong — cognitive biases can lead to distorted actions, ultimately making it difficult to profit.
There is a significant rule in the crypto world: rapid rises and slow declines.
When Bitcoin rises from 15,000 to 100,000, it seems like a one-sided upward trend, but the real surging period is very short; most of the time is spent in a grinding phase. Once the main upward wave starts, the market moves like a suddenly accelerating train, and only those who get on early can ride it; those who realize late find it hard to chase the price up.
The process of a bull market turning into a bear market is more deceptive. For example, if the price of a coin drops from 100,000 to 80,000 and altcoins generally pull back, most people will not sell but choose to wait and see — because the decline is usually slow and repetitive.
After a principal of 1 million rises to 3 million and then starts to drop, when it falls to 2.7 million, you think, 'I'll wait for it to rebound to 3 million to sell';
When the rebound to 2.8 million does not meet expectations, you choose to continue holding;
After dropping to 2.5 million again, you adjust your expectations to 'sell when it rebounds to 2.8 million';
As a result, it falls all the way to 2 million, and you start to self-persuade, 'I won't sell, I'll wait for the bull market';
From 2 million down to 1 million, then rebounding to 1.5 million, you have already become numb;
Ultimately, when it drops to 500,000 and rebounds to 700,000, you can only helplessly accept the loss.
Every small rebound comes with a 'hope illusion', but the essence of the market has already changed.
Why does the decline always feel like 'boiling a frog in warm water'? Because large funds need time to exit — if the amount of chips is too large, a sudden drop will only trigger panic selling, making it difficult to maximize profits. Market makers often use rebounds combined with 'good news' to exit in batches. A real crash (like a chain liquidation) is a low-probability event; after a sharp drop, there may be short-term rebound opportunities, but the norm is a cycle of 'drop - rebound - drop' again, and six months later the coin price may only remain a fraction. Newbies find it difficult to profit in the first round of cycles precisely because they lack vigilance against this 'slow drop trap'.
How to break the situation? Practical experience is the only antidote.
After experiencing a round of bull and bear markets, even if you continue to participate in altcoins, you will be more sensitive to risks. For instance, after making 10 times your investment, if the price drops to a profit of 7 times, you might decisively take profits rather than fantasizing about 'new highs'. This shift in awareness is more profound when you lose real money once than when someone teaches you a hundred times. The first time cutting losses hurts, the second time it numbs, the third time it becomes a habit, and by the fourth time, you can execute decisively — only after going through multiple cycles of 'cutting losses - reflecting' can you free yourself from emotional interference and take profits in time when you are in the green.
The essence of the market is a battleground of human nature:
Using people's desire for sudden wealth to create FOMO (fear of missing out) emotions with short-term surges;
Using people's fear of losses to prolong the selling time with a slow decline and rebound.
Those who see through this rule can remain rational in the face of surges and decisively exit in the face of declines; while those who hold onto the fantasy of 'it will always come back' will eventually become holders of wealth transfer. Only those who have experienced real combat and understood the market's tricks can safely land before the bubble recedes.
