From a high peak of $237 to a continuous slump of less than $3 today, the price trend of Filecoin token FIL can be described as a 'roller coaster' in the cryptocurrency market.
Since its mainnet launch in October 2020, it has experienced astonishing volatility, and now it is trapped in a long-term predicament, with its market capitalization ranking falling out of the top 50. What exactly has happened behind this?
In its early days, FIL was incredibly promising. With market expectations for distributed storage, the price was about $30 on the first day of launch, soaring to $150 at one point. However, the pressure from miners' staking demands and the token release mechanism (75% linear unlocking) caused the price to drop back to $15 by the end of 2020.
On April 1, 2021, FIL reached its peak moment, with the price soaring to $237.24, an increase of over 700%. At that time, Bitcoin's breakthrough of $60,000 boosted market sentiment, and the nearing release of tokens from early investors under the SAFT agreement raised expectations for a reduction in supply. Furthermore, with the Filecoin network completing the HyperDrive upgrade, storage capacity significantly increased, pushing it to higher levels.
But after the prosperity comes endless desolation. After the peak in April 2021, the linear release of miner rewards brought about 350,000 FIL in new selling pressure daily, causing the market to take profits and the price to quickly retreat. Subsequently, the DeFi craze faded, and regulatory uncertainties increased, with FIL's price dropping below $40 by the end of 2021.
In 2022, the cryptocurrency market faced multiple blows including the Luna crash, Fed rate hikes, and the bankruptcy of FTX. FIL's price fell to a historic low of $2.64 in December, down over 99% from its peak, with a mass exodus of miners, a decline in network effective computing power, and a collapse in market confidence. In 2023-2024, although the launch of the Filecoin Virtual Machine (FVM) brought a short-term rise, slow technological implementation and intensified market competition led to continued price declines.
As we enter 2025, FIL's predicament continues. As of June, the price fluctuated in the range of $2.16 to $2.77, down over 98% from its historical high. The 'shanzhai A-share' characteristics are evident, as staged unlocks of private placements and team tokens bring sustained selling pressure, while the slow progress of actual applications makes it difficult to support the valuation.
The Federal Reserve's tightening policy has led to a depletion of liquidity in the crypto market, with public chains like Sui and Avalanche diverting market share. The deterioration of on-chain data has further exacerbated FIL's situation.
Looking back at FIL's price trend, the token release mechanism, technological upgrades and ecological progress, macroeconomic conditions, and market sentiment are all intertwined. Multiple unlocks of early investor tokens have often triggered selling pressure, and while there are highlights in technological upgrades, the lack of actual application support, combined with macro events, has continuously amplified its price fluctuations.
However, FIL is not without hope. The halving effect in 2026 may alleviate inflationary pressure, and breakthroughs in collaboration with other public chains in the commercialization of data storage may bring new growth points. But the risks cannot be ignored; technical bottlenecks and regulatory uncertainties could continue to hinder its development.
Once a 'star coin', FIL has now become a typical case of the development difficulties faced by altcoins. In the future, can it emerge from the valley, achieve breakthroughs in technological implementation and ecological innovation, and regain market favor? Everything remains uncertain. While investors should pay attention to its potential opportunities, they must also be alert to the risks behind it and cautiously assess its long-term value.