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Futures Referral Code BR3698125
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Futures Referral Code BR3698125
@BitcoinBilir
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Marathon and Sprint: The Two Sides of the Portfolio! 🔵 Spot Strategy: “Build-and-Break Portfolio” A balanced portfolio structure consisting of BTC (50%), ETH (25%), and liquid stablecoins (25%) can be adopted. In the event of sudden declines in macroeconomic news flow (e.g., NFP, FOMC), dip-buying opportunities can be evaluated using one-third of the stablecoin reserve. The annual targeted maximum drawdown rate could be -25%. This target can be protected through gradual buy-sell blocks and structured sell strategies that do not require stops. 🟥 Futures Strategy: “Event-Driven Straddle & Basis Trade” Volatility Straddle: A delta-neutral position can be opened 48 hours before high-impact data releases such as CPI (both long and short). When the direction becomes clear, the opposite position is closed to lock in potential profits. Basis Arbitrage: By purchasing spot and simultaneously shorting futures, risk-free returns are sought when the annual basis difference is ≥ 10%. Risk Discipline: Open futures margin should not exceed 5% of the portfolio. If the liquidation level approaches 10%, the trade should be canceled. Volatility (%σ) and funding checks should be performed before each trade. #SpotVSFuturesStrategy Note: A spot investor is like a marathon runner, while a futures trader is like a short-distance sprinter. Strategies should be designed accordingly.
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Musk's Political Tease: Just a Poll or a Power Move? #MuskAmericaParty Over 1.2 million people voted, with more than 65% saying “a new party should be formed.” Elon Musk's “American Party” idea is currently just a question on the agenda, but the public's response is much clearer. 🔍 Remembering his previous initiatives: He bought Twitter (X) He influenced memecoins like Dogecoin His influence in media, artificial intelligence, and the defense industry has grown Next move: Politics? Such polls are typically not just “testing the waters” for Musk but rather “preliminary announcements.” 📢 Is a political structure focused on Bitcoin, artificial intelligence, and decentralization possible?
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A Turning Point in Bitcoin History: 2011 Wallets Carried $8.69 Billion Worth of BTC! Today, there was a rare flurry of activity on the Bitcoin blockchain: eight separate BTC wallets that were active in 2011 transferred a total of 80,009 BTC to new addresses. The total current value of these BTCs is 8.69 billion dollars. #Whale.Alert 🕰 At the time these wallets first became active, the BTC price was only between $0.78 and $3.37. 💰 40,000 BTC were transferred in a single transaction from four different addresses, while the other four wallets became active shortly thereafter. 🤔 Is a sale coming? Or is it wallet reorganization? It’s still unclear — but on-chain data providers note that the movements are not directly related to a sale. This development indicates that old BTC holders are starting to move again and will closely impact market psychology.
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June NFP Data Shows Mixed Signals! The US June nonfarm payrolls report presents a solid picture on the surface, but fragility is evident in the details: 🔹 Total Employment Increase: +147,000 🔹 Unemployment Rate: Declined to 4.1% 🔹 Private Sector Increase: Only 74,000 — the lowest level in 8 months 🔹 Labor Force Participation: 62.3% — the lowest point in 2.5 years While public sector employment is propping up the headline, signals indicate that real economic activity remains weak. 📉 The Fed's labor-focused approach to interest rate cuts is becoming more complicated with this data. While it may seem like a positive surprise for the market, its sustainability is questionable. #NFPWatch
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Will BTC Break Out This Time? Bitcoin is currently trading around $109,500 and consolidating in the critical $108,000–$110,000 range. The recent surge above $108,800 signaled a slight profit-taking, but overall trend indicators remain bullish. An upward trend above $110,000–$112,000, supported by halving cycles and increasing ETF inflows, could push the price to the $115,000–$143,000 level. The main support level is at 107,000–107,965 dollars; a break below this level could bring the risk of a pullback to 105,000 dollars or even lower to 102,000 dollars. #BTC110KToday The 4-hour golden cross and ADX around 60 confirm the upward trend. Macroeconomic data (Fed expectations, ETF capital inflows, institutional demand) continue to support the upward scenario.
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