Written by: Chen Ming, Securities China

According to the latest news on July 6, after Musk announced the establishment of the 'American Party', he made new statements. When asked whether the new party would participate in the midterm elections or presidential elections, Musk replied, 'Next year.' Subsequently, Musk's comments on the topic of 'candidacy time' surged to the top of Baidu's hot search.

Previously, Musk revealed during a poll that the 'American Party' will initially focus on 2-3 Senate seats and 8-10 House districts, attempting to become a decisive force in Congress through these key seats. This strategy is distinctly different from traditional political parties trying to win a majority of seats.

However, some media commentators suggest that America's 'winner-takes-all' electoral system is not friendly to third-party candidates. It is extremely difficult to establish a successful third party in the U.S., even for someone as wealthy and influential as Musk.

Musk responded about the 'candidacy time': next year.

According to CCTV News, on July 5, after announcing the establishment of the 'American Party', Musk made new statements. When asked whether the new party would participate in the midterm elections or presidential elections, he provided a timeline.

On the 5th, Musk announced the establishment of the 'American Party' on his social media. In response to a netizen's question about whether his new party would participate in the 2026 midterm elections or the 2028 presidential elections, Musk replied, 'Next year.'

Recently, Musk and U.S. President Trump have disagreed over the 'Big and Beautiful' tax and spending bill. On June 30, Musk severely criticized Trump's so-called 'Big and Beautiful' tax and spending bill, stating that if the bill passes, the 'American Party' would be established the next day. On July 4, local time, President Trump signed the 'Big and Beautiful' tax and spending bill, making it effective. A few hours before the bill was signed into law, Musk posted a poll on social media asking netizens whether a new party should be formed to 'liberate' the American people from the alternating two-party system of the Democrats and Republicans. Among approximately 1.249 million votes received, supporters accounted for 65.4%, while opponents made up 34.6%.

On July 5, local time, American billionaire Musk posted on social media: 'Today, the establishment of the 'American Party' also gives you freedom.' Musk made this statement in response to his post on the 4th. 'The support-to-opposition ratio is 2:1, indicating that you want a new party, and you will have a new party,' Musk wrote, stating that the U.S. is 'bankrupt due to waste and corruption.'

Some netizens speculate that the political platform of the 'American Party' may include reducing debt spending, promoting AI technology development, and comprehensive deregulation. Musk responded by saying, 'That's right!'

On July 4, local time, Musk revealed during a poll that the 'American Party' will initially focus on 2-3 Senate seats and 8-10 House districts, attempting to become a decisive force in Congress through these key seats. This strategy is distinctly different from traditional political parties attempting to win a majority of seats. Musk aims to target becoming the 'key minority' in Congress, influencing policy-making by playing a decisive role in critical votes.

Musk pointed out that in the current situation where congressional seat distribution is extremely close, this precise strategy is sufficient to influence significant legislation and ensure a 'true representation of the people's will.'

'Can the 'American Party' succeed?'

According to U.S. law, the establishment of a qualified political party requires a complex certification process to confirm its qualifications for participating in elections. First, a caucus or convention must be held to elect temporary officials and designate the party name. It is unclear whether Musk's 'American Party' has initiated the relevant procedures.

'It is extremely difficult to establish a successful third party in the U.S., even for someone as wealthy and influential as Musk,' commented Newsweek recently, stating, 'History does not stand on his side.'

The report analysis suggests that although Musk has demonstrated undeniable mobilization capability on the internet, with his posts on the X platform triggering significant fluctuations in the financial market, and his followers being loyal, high-profile, and influential, political organization is another matter. It requires grassroots action, alliances, and stable coalition relationships, none of which can be built solely through memes or live broadcasts. Many political movements that became popular online have often struggled to translate online support into substantial offline impact.

'Systemic barriers in the electoral system — such as strict ballot qualification laws, the Electoral College system, 'winner-takes-all' voting methods, and the blockade of national debate platforms — almost make it impossible for any new party to make real progress without dismantling decades of political structure,' the report states. Even if Musk has vast resources and media influence, these barriers remain deeply entrenched.

Public reports indicate that historically, it has been difficult for 'third parties' in the U.S. to achieve political success. American businessman Ross Perot received nearly 19% of the popular vote in the 1992 election but failed to win a single electoral vote. Ralph Nader was labeled a 'spoiler' in the 2000 election. Recently, the Forward Party, founded by Chinese-American entrepreneur and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang, has gained attention but struggled to gain traction.

According to Global Times, (Deutsche Welle) quoted political scholar Bernard Thomas from Valdosta State University, stating that for a 'third party' to succeed in the U.S., there must be a large number of people dissatisfied with existing political options, and the new party must be able to respond to public discontent and thereby build a grassroots movement from the bottom up. However, many emerging political parties often have unclear stances and are unable to genuinely respond to people's strong desire for change.

Reports state that while many Americans are indeed dissatisfied with existing political options, a study conducted in May 2024 by two American political scientists found that Republican and Democratic voters who are dissatisfied with their own party are actually less willing to support a more moderate new party.

According to CNN, American political parties are governed not only by the laws and rules of the Federal Election Commission but also by the laws and regulations of each state, including which parties can appear on the ballot. Emory University political science professor Alan Abramowitz said, 'The setup of this system makes it nearly impossible for third parties to succeed.'

In the U.S., forming a new political party also faces unique funding obstacles. The McCain-Feingold Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act passed in 2022 imposes strict limits on party contributions. The current regulation states that the total amount of contributions for different party purposes cannot exceed $450,000. Lee Goodman, former chairman of the Federal Election Commission and a lawyer, said Musk would need to gather thousands of joint donors to raise sufficient funds for his party.

Goodman told CNN: 'Due to the existence of federal campaign contribution limits, even an extremely wealthy individual cannot establish a new national political party by injecting capital like starting a business. Under the current regulatory system, the idea of wealthy founders providing startup funding to form a national political party and participate in state federal elections is unrealistic.'

If the difficulty of forming a new political party is too high, Musk can still exert significant influence through his Super Political Action Committee (super PAC) — which can accept unlimited funding from him. Such committees can then support independent candidates, who may also find it easier to qualify for ballots. Goodman stated, 'Whether through personal independent spending or through super PACs, this remains the most effective way for the wealthy to legally and practically participate in national politics.'