#NFPWatch

The next Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is scheduled for release on Thursday, July 3, 2025, at 12:30 UTC, providing employment data for June 2025. This report is a key economic indicator that measures the net change in employment, excluding farm workers, government employees, and non-profit organization employees.

#wct

*What to Expect:*

- *Consensus Expectation*: 110K new jobs added, down from 139K in the previous release

- *Market Impact*: A miss could lead to USD selling, lower equities, and higher gold prices, while a beat could result in higher equities, higher yields, and a stronger USD

- *Seasonal Trends*: July NFP averages around 200-250K new jobs added, excluding outlier years like 2020 and 2021

*Why NFP Matters:*

- *Economic Indicator*: Provides insight into the US labor market's health and potential changes in consumer spending and inflation

- *Federal Reserve*: Influences interest rate decisions, with strong NFP data potentially leading to rate hikes and weak data potentially leading to rate cuts

- *Market Volatility*: Can cause significant fluctuations in financial markets, particularly in currency and stock markets

*Market Reaction:*

- *USD*: A strong NFP report could boost the US dollar, while a weak report could lead to a decline

- *Equities*: A beat could lead to higher equities, while a miss could result in a correction

- *Gold*: A strong NFP report could lead to lower gold prices, while a weak report could result in higher gold prices