PANews reported on July 5 that the market focus in the past week was mainly on the United States, and various indexes set new historical highs almost every day, showing an extremely enthusiastic sentiment. It is worth noting that asset management companies are increasingly bullish on U.S. stocks, and market sentiment may be a little too excited. This may lead to over-concentration of positions, and once there is bad news, such as the tariff deadline set by Trump on July 9, market volatility may increase. Looking ahead to next week, traders will pay close attention to the minutes of the monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve, the latest statements from the FOMC voting members, and the latest progress of Trump's tariff negotiations. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
Tuesday 23:00, US New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations for June;
09:30 on Wednesday, China’s June CPI annual rate;
At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting;
At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 5;
At 21:00 on Thursday, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Moussalem will deliver a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy;
At 02:30 on Friday, Daly, 2027 FOMC voting member and President of the San Francisco Fed, delivered a speech on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
After the release of the non-farm payrolls report that exceeded expectations this week, US data will enter a quiet period next week. According to LSEG data, the market now believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July is only 4%, and it will not be fully priced until October. Investors are looking for the latest clues on the labor market, including the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which will be released next Tuesday, and the initial jobless claims data, which will be released next Thursday.