Hello everyone, I am Panni.

1. Bitcoin (BTC) price volatility and market expectations

Price trends: Bitcoin has recently fluctuated in the range of $105,000–110,000, reaching a new high of $110,529.18 on July 3, but subsequently experienced 'roller coaster' volatility.

Institutional predictions:

Standard Chartered predicts BTC could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, with a target price of $135,000 for the third quarter.

XBIT exchange analysis states that if it breaks through $109,000, it may impact $116,000–$130,000.

Key liquidation zone: $107,100–$108,800 is the battleground for bulls and bears; breaking through may trigger large-scale leverage liquidation.

2. Continuous inflow of institutional and ETF funds

Public companies increase holdings: In the first half of 2025, global enterprises purchased 245,510 BTC, far exceeding ETF inflows (118,424 BTC).

ETF performance: The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $4 billion in June, with BlackRock's IBIT managing assets reaching $75 billion.

3. Rise of decentralized exchanges (DEX)

XBIT leads: Market share reaches 38%, adopting on-chain order book + zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) to enhance trading privacy and efficiency.

Surge in trading volume: Overall DEX trading volume increased by 127% year-on-year, with the BTC/USDT trading pair accounting for over 60%.

4. Impact of macroeconomics and policies

Federal Reserve rate cut expectations: If rates are cut in September, it may drive BTC up; conversely, hawkish signals could trigger a pullback.

Key economic data:

July 15 US CPI: If inflation falls, it may strengthen BTC's 'digital gold' narrative.

July 29–30 Federal Reserve meeting: Market focuses on the impact of interest rate policies on risk assets.

5. Divergence in altcoin performance

BTC dominance rises to 65%, while mainstream altcoins like ETH and SOL show weak performance, with funds concentrating on BTC.

Layer 2 ecosystem expansion: Ethereum L2 trading volume is growing, but ETH price remains under pressure (falling below $2,400).

6. Technological innovation and application landing

Lightning Network: Channel capacity exceeds 5,000 BTC, global fast-food giants have reduced payment transaction fees.

USDT integrates Lightning Network: Enhances the practicality of BTC for small payments.

7. Regulatory dynamics

EU MiCA comes into effect: Stablecoins must have a 1:1 reserve, promoting the process of compliance.

US policy easing: Recognizing BTC as a 'strategic reserve asset' boosts market confidence.

Summary and outlook:

Short-term: Whether BTC can stabilize at $109,000 is key, breaking through may trigger a new round of rises.

Long-term: Institutional accumulation + ETF fund inflows support a bull market, but high leverage trading increases volatility risk.

Risk warning: Pay attention to July macroeconomic data (CPI, non-farm payrolls) and geopolitical events (G20 meeting).

📌 Operation suggestions:

Breaking through $109,000 allows for positioning, while falling below $105,000 requires caution for a pullback.

Altcoins (such as ETH, SOL) need to wait for signals of fund rotation, participate cautiously in the short term.

I am Panni, a long-term coin holder enthusiast. I don't touch contracts, nor do I use leverage. I earn coins in bear markets and earn USDT in bull markets. If you are also like this, then welcome to follow Panni. (No fees! No pushing! No rebates!)

Let's traverse the bull and bear markets together, huddle for warmth, and strive to be a tougher leek.