For an observer or expert in any field, it is important to provide accurate forecasts. In fact, now we will discuss the pros and cons of forecasting.
The ability to make long-term forecasts is enabled by abstract thinking - a feature inherent only to homo sapiens, which actually allowed us to occupy a dominant position on planet Earth.
A key feature of abstract thinking is detachment from reality or, more simply, 'theoretical thinking'. That is, based on scant input data and using life experience (either personal or universal), we construct a chain of subsequent events in our minds.
For example, an ancient person seeing a cloud could not only predict rain but also assume that the rain would flood the crops, negatively affecting the harvest, which in turn would lead to hunger. In this regard, a person understood that their tribe was facing a struggle for resources with a neighboring tribe, and therefore, they needed to arm themselves in advance and prepare for the confrontation.
Thus, abstract thinking helped to survive.
However, everything has its downside. The problem with forecasting is that sometimes we trust it too much. That is, while building models of the future, we rely on them as if they were more or less objective.
In reality, it has been experimentally proven that the number of accurate forecasts is about 30% of the total expectations of most people. This is related to the fact that an ordinary person is unable to hold more than three factors of a situation in their mind simultaneously.
At the same time, most of people's fears are not related to reality but to the future, or rather to the model of it that we have constructed in our minds.
This does not mean that forecasts are worthless and unnecessary. Of course, they are needed, and in general, planning is required in life.
It is simply important not to forget that sometimes we have an infinitely small amount of input to effectively calculate such a multifactorial system as human life. Therefore, deciding whether to look to the future with hope or fear is often not a question of knowledge, but a question of faith.
Therefore, adhere to the 'optimism strategy' - at the very least, it is beneficial for mental health.