Currently, PENGU is in a short-term overbought state, with the price approaching the upper Bollinger Band (0.01679), but the order book shows strong selling pressure (buy-sell ratio 0.48). The 24-hour increase is 4.49%, but the trading volume is weak (volume ratio 0.83). It is recommended to short in the short term, enter at 0.01674, stop loss at 0.0170, target at 0.0158, risk-reward ratio 3.62. Risk: If it breaks 0.0170 or macro events trigger buying, it may reverse upwards; control position <2%, avoid trading during low liquidity periods.
Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Band Position: Current price 0.016737 is close to the upper band (0.016790), position 94.84%, indicating high overbought risk and a high probability of short-term pullback.
• MA200 Position: Current price is above MA200 (0.013991), deviation 19.62%, indicating a medium-term bullish trend, but excessive divergence suggests a need for correction.
• Holding Cost Position: Current price is above holding cost (0.014189), deviation 17.96%, indicating most holders are in profit, which may trigger profit-taking.
2. Market Strength:
• Volume Analysis: 24-hour volume ratio 0.83 (below 1), indicating insufficient upward momentum, low participation from major players; recent price increase but volume decreased, a typical divergence signal.
• Open Interest Change: 1-hour open interest increased by 1.82%, but the long-short ratio dropped to 1.0197 (previous value 1.0433), smart money is shifting to short positions, combined with a negative funding rate (-0.00015156), indicating accumulation of bearish sentiment.
• Market News: No significant new events, but liquidity data shows sellers concentrated at 0.0188 (value 470,867 USDT), partially digested, sentiment is cautious.
3. Key Support and Resistance Levels:
• Support Levels: 0.01576 (lower Bollinger Band), 0.01419 (holding cost), reason: technical retracement level and liquidity dense area.
• Resistance Levels: 0.01679 (upper Bollinger Band), 0.0188 (key selling area), reason: order book sell orders dominant (near area sell order value 263,774 vs buy orders 96,127).
• Liquidity Area: Selling area concentrated at 0.0188-0.06 (total value > 2 million USDT), forming strong resistance; buying area is weak, with no significant support.
• Buy-Sell Pressure Ratio: 0.48 (selling pressure dominant), historical threshold <0.5 indicates strong bearish sentiment, high short-term downside risk.
• Total Value of Price Range: Near area (0.5%) sell orders 263,774 vs buy orders 96,127 (difference -167,646), mid-to-long distance sell orders also dominate, indicating a capital barrier favorable to shorts.
• Liquidity Gap: Sparse buy orders above 0.0170, if the price breaks, it may trigger slippage risk.
Market Cycle Analysis
Currently in the mid-retracement phase of a bull market: 7-day increase of 20.34% but RSI 63.15 not overbought, the trend is sustainable, but short-term correction pressure is increasing.
Trading Strategy
• Entry Point: 0.01674 (near current price, aggressive short position).
• Stop Loss Point: 0.0170 (above the resistance level).
• Target Level: 0.0158 (lower Bollinger Band).
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 3.62.
• Risk Warning:
• Market Risk: Heavy selling pressure or macro positive news (e.g., policy changes) may reverse the trend; liquidity gap above 0.0170 increases slippage risk.
• Strategy Failure: If the price breaks 0.0170 or the open interest increases significantly, reassessment is needed.
• Operational Note: Single trade risk < total capital 2%, avoid low liquidity periods during Asian night.
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