This weekend is not peaceful.

The US stock market is closed for three days, perfectly timed to coincide with the deadline for tariff negotiations on July 9. Those familiar with Trump's style know that this 'market closure window' is often the best time for him to make moves.

The operations of the past two weeks are still fresh in memory: every weekend there are harsh words, such as plans to attack Iran or restart the Cold War, which frightens the cryptocurrency market into a weekend crash; but by Monday, as soon as the US stock market opens, good news is immediately released and the market reverses. This kind of routine, to put it simply, is treating the crypto market as an emotional ATM.

Therefore, in the next three days, there is a high possibility of sudden news, whether good or bad, and volatility is bound to be significant. For those holding positions, remember to fasten your seatbelts and don't go all-in overnight.

Non-farm data 'exceeded standards,' disrupting the Federal Reserve's rate cut rhythm.

The non-farm payroll data for June exploded: 147,000 new jobs were added, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, breaking the market's expectation of an economic slowdown.

The market was almost certain of a rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September was even hyped to over 98%. But with this set of data, the entire expectation has cooled by half—September's rate cut probability has fallen to around 70%, and the number of rate cuts for the year has been reduced from three to two.

This is not good news for the crypto market. Because funds originally gambled on 'liquidity release' to boost the market, but upon seeing that the Federal Reserve is not 'rescuing the market' quickly, short-term sentiment is bound to cool down.

Chinese people have been played; FTX's bankruptcy compensation is directly blamed.

FTX's shenanigans are back.

According to the latest liquidation announcement, the platform will not compensate Chinese users, citing 'policy restrictions.' Even if you are abroad, there will still be no compensation. It should be noted that 80% of FTX's users came from China, and this wave of bankruptcy liquidation has directly made most people victims.

Once used to 'save face' for Chinese users, now they are being treated uniformly during liquidation, which can be said to be quite ugly.

BTC technical view: $95,000 is the 'golden pit,' don't miss it.

In terms of market performance, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break through $110,000, and current support looks at three key levels:

  • 103K: short-term technical support;

  • 100K round number: market psychological defense line;

  • 95K (MA54 moving average): strong technical support, a standard level mid-term 'golden pit.'

Based on the current fundamentals, if it really drops back to around $95K in July or August, it is actually a good opportunity to buy quality assets.

From a timing perspective, the real big market is likely to start after late September, with the fourth quarter being the main upward wave. Don't rush to chase highs now; maintaining rhythm and waiting for a pullback is the best strategy.

The 'playing dead' of Ethereum: a strong whale is the key signal.

Compared to Bitcoin's strong performance, ETH has remained silent, seemingly 'giving up.' But in fact, behind ETH lies a 'time bomb': the expectation of a staking ETF launch.

Currently, ETH is trading repeatedly in the range of 2300~2480, with almost no new negative news. As long as the staking ETF is launched, ETH may suddenly explode.

The key point is: the upcoming pullback window is an excellent opportunity to buy the dip. But remember, only buy those strong coins that have backing, whale control, and structural support. Because losing money in a bear market isn't scary; what's scary is not getting on board in a bull market.

Practical advice summary:

  • Weekend risks are high; hold light positions and set strict stop losses;

  • If BTC drops to around $95,000, consider building positions in batches;

  • Buy ETH on dips, still aiming above $3300;

  • Watch Trump's dynamics, as he often has 'unexpected twists,' be careful of the rhythm being disrupted;

  • $ONDO and other strong whale coins can be focused on, as targets with good news support have greater opportunities than risks.