ETH/USDT Daily Technical Analysis Report (July 5, 2025)

I. Review of Yesterday's Market

1. Price Trajectory:

- Asian Session (09:00 UTC+8): Started the downward channel from $2601

- First Round of Decline: $2529 (-2.77%)

- Technical Rebound: $2556 (+1.07%) failed to effectively hold above the 60-day moving average

- Second Bottom Test: Reached $2474 (-3.21%) during the US session

- End of Day Fluctuation Range: $2501-$2521 (±1.9%)

II. Current Technical Analysis (1-Hour K-Line)

1. Bollinger Bands Indicator:

- Opening Narrowing (Volatility 12.8%)

- Upper Band $2567 | Middle Band $2518 | Lower Band $2469

- Price continues to test the middle band resistance (3 attempts without breakthrough)

2. Moving Average System:

- Short-term Moving Average Golden Cross: 5MA(2510)↑ × 10MA(2498)→

- Key Support Levels:

• 240MA: $2472

• 360MA: $2437

3. Momentum Indicators:

- MACD:

• Fast and slow lines converge (difference 0.38)

• Potential Golden Cross pattern

• Bullish volume bars weak (+0.12)

- RSI(14): 58.7 (close to overbought threshold)

III. Key Price Levels

1. Resistance Levels:

- Immediate Resistance: $2539 (previous high + Fibonacci 23.6%)

- Strong Resistance: $2619

2. Support Levels:

- Primary Support: $2469 (Bollinger Bands lower band)

- Strong Support: $2431

IV. Market Judgment

1. Trend Judgment:

- Short-term: Range Fluctuation ($2501-$2521)

- Medium-term: If holding above $2501, likely to test $2536-$2541 area

2. Volatility Characteristics:

- Amplitude Narrowing (Current ATR value 22.3)

- Long and Short contend for the middle band ($25178)

V. Trading Strategy Suggestions

1. Bearish Strategy:

- Entry Range: $2541-$2551 (Risk-Reward Ratio 1:1.5)

- Additional Position: $2581 (Stop Loss Space 2.5%)

- Stop Loss Suggestion: $2621 (break above previous high)

2. Bullish Strategy:

- Trigger Condition: $2469 support verification

- Target Price: $2536 (Potential Profit 2.7%)

- Stop Loss Price: $2429 (-1.6%)

VI. Risk Warning

1. Key Focus:

- Market sentiment before US Non-Farm Data

- SEC's progress on Ethereum ETF approval

2. Volatility Warning:

- A breakout above $2567 may trigger short covering

- A drop below $2431 will open space below $2401