Last night, a report from Wall Street giant JPMorgan was like a deep-water bomb, waking up the crypto community immersed in the 'trillion-dollar stablecoin dream'! The report clearly states: By 2028, the global stablecoin market value is expected to reach only 500 billion dollars—what does this number mean? Even the tail end of BlackRock CEO Fink's '20 trillion by 2030' prediction from last year is not met! Not to mention the crypto analysts' rallying cry of 'breaking a trillion in three years.' JPMorgan, is this cold water mixed with ice?
Converging Sharp Commentary: Data clash? No, this is a battle of expectation differences!
On the surface, it seems like a prediction divergence, but behind it is the cognitive gap between traditional financial giants and crypto-native forces! What is JPMorgan based on? Strict regulatory assumptions, slow adoption rates, competition from traditional payment giants. But what does the crypto sphere see? RWA (Real World Assets) explosion, payment giant PayPal and Visa rushing in, and an impending liquidity tsunami from the Fed's interest rate cuts!
JPMorgan deliberately ignored a key fact: In the first half of 2024, the on-chain settlement volume of compliant stablecoins has already surpassed an astonishing 7 trillion dollars, and Visa's own stablecoin settlements have exceeded 10 billion! Using linear thinking to predict the index market? Wall Street veterans, it’s time to update your database!
Explosive Insight: Is JPMorgan's 'bearish' stance hiding a secret? Or is it paving the way for its own JPM Coin!
Chán has sensed a hint of 'no silver here'! JPMorgan has long been laying out institutional-level stablecoins like JPM Coin, and at this time, throwing out 'conservative expectations', is it suppressing the market's overheating sentiment to pave the way for subsequent low-level entry or policy games? Don't forget, the Fed's regulatory framework for bank-issued stablecoins is on the verge! Morgan Stanley lowering expectations at this time may be a gesture to regulators: 'Look, we are very rational, please approve our JPM Coin!' Financial games are never just about numbers!
2025 decisive moment: Interest rate cuts + election year, stablecoins welcome the 'golden window'
Put aside the rhetoric and focus on reality! What environment in 2025? The Fed's interest rate cut cycle is starting (CME's latest expectation shows over 80% probability for July!), the policy game heats up in the US election year, and asset management giants like BlackRock continue to attract capital with spot ETFs! These three engines will directly inject nuclear power into stablecoins:
On-chain treasury-type stablecoins (like Ondo's USDY) will become the 'interest rate cut beneficiary artifact', yielding crushing returns over traditional savings;
Payment giants accelerate the integration of stablecoins; cutting cross-border remittance costs in half is not a dream;
The SEC's regulatory sword hangs high over non-bank issuers, and the market share of compliant leaders (USDC, PYUSD) will skyrocket!
Converging Practical Strategy: Embrace the dual lines of 'compliance + yield'!
Short-term: Focus on the volatility opportunities of RWA concept stablecoins ($ONDO, $MKR) before the interest rate cut expectations materialize;
Midline: Directly challenging regulatory-friendly giant cryptocurrencies (potential IPO catalyst for $USDC issuer Circle);
Long-term: Betting on the 'payment + stablecoin' ecological dominance ($PYUSD partnering with e-commerce, $XLM cross-border protocol).
The final soul strike: Do you believe JPMorgan's '500 billion ceiling,' or gamble on the 'on-chain dollar migration' after the Fed's easing? Let's see the truth in the comments section!
In times of great upheaval, can one go alone? The converging ace team is assembled! Non-manic ambitious individuals, please refrain!