Market Focus: U.S. Fiscal Expansion May Become a Catalyst for BTC Prices
The expectation for the implementation of the U.S. "American Beautiful Act" is rising, and institutional estimates indicate that by the end of 2025, the scale of U.S. national debt may exceed $40 trillion, continuing the logic of fiscal expansion. Historically, after Trump signed the COVID-19 spending bill at the end of 2020, BTC/USD rose 38% within weeks, with the core logic being the market's pricing of excessive money issuance and inflation expectations.
Currently, global central bank balance sheets remain in an expansion cycle, and BTC, as a constant quantity (21 million coins) anti-inflation asset, is attracting the attention of institutional funds due to its scarcity. Data shows that North American ETF holdings have reached 5.7%, and the demand for capital allocation may further increase. If fiscal stimulus triggers a market risk-aversion sentiment, BTC prices may break through $150,000.
Two major variables need to be monitored: first, the actual impact of the bill's implementation pace on liquidity release, and second, the correction effect of the July CPI data on inflation expectations. From the supply side, after the BTC halving cycle, mining costs have risen, combined with increased institutional holdings, which may strengthen its price support. However, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors need to develop strategies based on their own risk tolerance.