The price of coins in the flames of war has become an alternative barometer of great power competition.

"Unconditional surrender!" - When Trump's war tweet once again echoes in the Middle East, the crypto market performs an epic roller coaster: Bitcoin skyrocketed $3,000 within 24 hours to break through the peak of $109,000, then plummeted $2,500 after the 'decapitation warning', and $394 million worth of leveraged players were instantly liquidated.

At this moment, the powder keg turns towards Gaza! Trump issues the final ultimatum; the success or failure of the ceasefire will be determined within 24 hours. Crypto enthusiasts, are your positions ready?


1. If the ceasefire succeeds: Will the crypto market welcome a 'rocket-like surge'?

The historical script has long been written - just last month on the 24th, Trump announced the landing of the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement, and Bitcoin surged by 5%, pulling back from the abyss of $98,000 to above $106,000; Ethereum violently surged by 9%, while altcoins like SOL and DOGE collectively soared over 10%, igniting a feast of short liquidations across the network!

Three major engines have ignited:

Institutional ammo is ready: The US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net inflows for 11 consecutive days, sweeping up $1.13 billion in June, showcasing the predatory nature of big players who buy on dips. Once the geopolitical alert is lifted, billions of incremental funds may flood in instantly.

Technical bulls make a strong move: BTC daily chart has strongly broken through the EMA20 moving average resistance, RSI indicator has entered the attack zone, the historical high of $111,980 is within reach. If a ceasefire is confirmed, the short defenses may be breached in one fell swoop.

Hot money rushes to altcoins: MEME coins and AI tokens surged 12% in a single day during the last ceasefire, while PEPE, SHIB, and other meme coins danced with the wind. This time, keep an eye on Gaza-themed chains like Middle Eastern payment tokens, which may recreate the myth of doubling overnight.

2. If the ceasefire collapses: Will the 'bloody script' of 100,000 liquidations replay?

If the ultimatum fails and missiles are launched again, the market will instantly switch to 'survival mode.' Referencing the June warning of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, Bitcoin once flashed a 12% crash, while gold rose 15% - amidst extreme panic, the crypto 'safe haven aura' was crushed by traditional assets.

Three nuclear bombs are hanging high:

Leverage liquidation storm: Currently, $1.796 billion worth of long positions are piled up at the $104,000 level, and once it falls below, it will trigger a chain liquidation, recreating a '$1 billion level bloodbath.'

Funds are fleeing wildly: During the escalation of war in June, the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $80 million in a single month, institutions urgently swapped to gold and the dollar, with ETH plummeting 12%, faring worse than BTC.

Dimensional strike in the physical world: The massive power outage in Lebanon caused local Bitcoin prices to plummet by 30%. If communications in Gaza are interrupted, holders will have no chance to cut losses! On-chain assets could instantly 'go to zero' amidst the flames of war.

3. Trump's 'crypto conspiracy': Is war just a pawn?

Old Trump has a far-reaching layout, and the crypto market has become his strategic weapon:

National Bitcoin reserves: In March, a directive was issued to incorporate confiscated assets into strategic reserves, although it is difficult to stop the market downtrend in the short term; BTC plunged 13% following the announcement, but the ambition to hold pricing power is glaringly evident.

Strangulate CBDCs, support stablecoins: Sign an executive order to ban central bank digital currencies and promote dollar stablecoins, rolling out the red carpet for USDT and USDC. In June (GENIUS Act) landed, $4.17 billion of hot money poured into stablecoins, compliance giants are winning big.

Tariff clubs create volatility: Imposing a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, Buffett angrily criticized it as 'an act of war.' In the face of economic stagflation, the US GDP shrank by 2.8% in the first quarter; Bitcoin has become a tool for policy arbitrage - attracting global risk-averse capital while squeezing de-dollarization efforts from China and Russia.

4. The life and death game tonight: A survival guide for retail investors.

"Bitcoin has become the blood pressure gauge of geopolitics" - Julian Hodge, former advisor to the Quantum Fund.

Don’t chase the highs during rapid increases: If ceasefire news suddenly strikes, beware of 'buying at the peak.' Referencing the June ceasefire market, Bitcoin surged to $108,000 before retracing 5%; buying on dips is the way.
Buy the dip during crashes: If a black swan triggers panic, pay attention to the strong support level of $98,200, where institutional protection is evident, and ETF funds buy more as prices drop.
Keep enough bullets: The retaliatory tariffs from Trump’s tariff war on April 2 + the suspension of military aid to Ukraine, the global market's tremors are not over; cash in hand is essential for a comeback!


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