Market Analysis and News Sharing:
U.S. non-farm payroll data shows that new jobs in June exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate also surpassed estimates. As U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate declined more than expected, Bitcoin quickly gave back its gains. This data was unexpected, but under market expectations, it attracted many speculators to buy long positions, driving up Bitcoin.
Previously, data was analyzed based on expectations that interest rates would be cut early in July. However, influenced by non-farm payroll data, a rate cut in July has gradually become unlikely. The data shows that the probability of a rate cut in July has decreased from 23.8% yesterday to 9%, which is a significant drop. From the data, it is highly likely that a rate cut will occur in September; the probability shown yesterday was over 90%, but today it is only 67.8%, adding some uncertainty to the rate cut. With robust labor data, the Federal Reserve has another reason to delay the rate cut, which is not good news for cryptocurrencies and risk assets.
After the 'Big and Beautiful' bill was passed by the Senate yesterday, there were some adjustments in between. Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries delivered a record opposition speech against the bill, seizing control of the chamber and delaying the vote by more than eight hours. After some turmoil, it returned to the House, and the President himself pressured those who were skeptical to drop their objections and send the bill to him for signing.
Various institutions and companies are continuously purchasing and preparing to purchase Bitcoin, with data showing:
- 21 new treasury bonds issued, totaling 6,745 BTC
- 47 future treasury bond plans to purchase BTC worth billions of dollars
- 42 companies have increased their holdings, totaling 61,309 BTC
- 43 companies plan to acquire more assets, having raised billions in Bitcoin
It was previously mentioned in an article that once Bitcoin surpassed 100,000, it became a game among large holders, with increasing institutional participation and decreasing retail participation. To attract retail investors, Bitcoin must either return to lower levels or break through to a new height.
The first Solana staking exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States recorded $12 million in inflows by the end of its first trading day. The fund achieved $8 million in trading volume within the first 20 minutes, but the price of Solana did not show significant response. The fund trades under the code SSK, offering investors direct exposure to spot Solana and staking yields, making it the first approved cryptocurrency staking ETF in the U.S.
The U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a total trading volume of $4.6 billion on its first day of trading in January 2024. This is relatively insignificant compared to the performance of spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) funds upon their launch. However, it's important to note that this is a altcoin ETF, and given the current low attention on altcoins, achieving this data is a confidence-boosting message for ETFs supporting cryptocurrency staking.
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis drafts an independent cryptocurrency taxation bill
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis submitted a draft bill on Thursday outlining several provisions for comprehensive tax reform, exempting certain digital asset transactions from taxation after the cryptocurrency amendment failed to appear in the budget proposal.
The bill proposes to exempt minimum limits on digital asset transactions and capital gains for amounts of $300 or less, with an annual exemption cap of $5,000.
BTC Market Suggestions:
Bitcoin's 4-hour and 1-hour moving averages show a bearish arrangement, MACD shows a death cross and the energy bar's negative value is expanding, while KDJ is deeply oversold with signs of a rebound; however, the hourly market has entered an oversold phase, requiring a rebound for adjustment.
Overall, the short-term bearish trend dominates, but multiple KDJ periods are oversold, and MACD energy bars are shrinking, indicating a weak fluctuation with a slight rebound demand due to overselling.
Operational Thoughts:
If the price rebounds to the 109200 - 109500 range, consider a light short position.
If the price retreats to the 108000 - 108200 range, consider a light long position.
ETH Market Suggestions:
Ethereum's recent movements have been quite similar to Bitcoin's, with the 4-hour and 1-hour moving averages flattening out, while KDJ shows potential for a rebound; both the 30-minute and 15-minute indicators have rebound demand. Overall, the short-term bearish trend dominates, but multiple KDJ periods are oversold, and MACD energy bars are shrinking, indicating a weak fluctuation with a slight rebound demand due to overselling.
Operational Thoughts:
If the price rebounds to the 2580 - 2600 range, consider a light short position.
If the price retreats to the 2500 - 2520 range, consider a light long position.
