Haitang discusses hot topics:
Let’s first talk about last night’s Non-Farm Payrolls: As soon as the data came out, it splashed cold water on those hoping for the Fed to loosen up. It was surprisingly strong, and the market quickly sobered up—don’t dream of looseness in the short term.
On the other hand, the beautiful big plan has basically landed, and this wave of good news has been overhyped. To put it bluntly, the short-term show is over. Does Bitcoin want to stabilize above 110K and rush upwards? Then there must be a new, sufficiently explosive topic to support it.
Back to the market, technically it still looks good: the daily channel is still steadily moving upward, and the spot premium is also healthy. This indicates that the market structure hasn’t collapsed and is still on the right track. The pressure channel has now shifted up to between 114K and 121K.
In other words, as long as it can truly break through 111K, there’s at least another thousand dollars of upward space ahead! This is not a minor skirmish; it's aiming for a big gain. But the precondition is to break through! Just hovering below is useless; if 111K cannot be broken, it’s all nonsense.
Speaking of which, I have to mention a key time point: I guess many have forgotten how Bitcoin rose from 74K three months ago? That was due to Trump giving all countries subjected to tariffs a 90-day grace period. Now, there are only 5 days left in this grace period, ending on July 9th!
If Trump cannot negotiate a tariff agreement lower than 10% with these countries in the next 5 days, then the core logic supporting the rise from 74K could be in jeopardy, and valuations may be directly discounted. By then, don’t expect a surge; just holding steady without crashing would be a blessing.
So, the conclusion is very clear:
Logically, before July 9th, the market is likely to lean conservative, not likely to make a wild charge.
Moreover, there is a CPI data release coming in mid-July. Just think about it, if a 10% tariff can push inflation up, what happens if it turns into 15% or 20%? It would be strange if the market doesn’t go crazy! The data is a hard fact that the market cannot ignore.
Looking at it now:
Bullish View: Can see 114K-121K, if it really takes off, it could be at least a thousand dollar gain.
Bearish View: Pullback to see 101K-103K.
But regardless of whether it rises or falls in the short term, the long-term bullish trend remains, and the structure is intact. It all depends on the capital movements in the next few days!
If funds can hold at the 111K level without anyone fleeing, then there’s a chance to see new highs.
If funds flee, it's all in vain. There are many bulls in the market cheering each other on, but the bears lurking outside are a real presence.
One more thing: Last night, the U.S. stock market closed early around 1 AM, and today Americans are on holiday for Independence Day. Market liquidity is likely to drop significantly over these three days, and it’s highly probable that there won’t be any movement in the market.
Additionally, the recent futures market has mostly cleared out any positions that were about to explode (both long and short positions have been cleaned out). So, for friends holding positions, don't expect any big moves over the weekend. It's highly likely to be a boring and sluggish dead market, unless some significant news drops, otherwise it's just a waste of time and mental energy.
Haitang on Trend:
Resistance Level Reference:
Second Resistance: 111000 (Key Breakthrough Point)
First Resistance: 110000 (Strong Psychological Barrier)
Support Level Reference:
Second Support: 108700 (Key Accumulation Area/Previous High Retest Level)
First Support: 107800 (Important Structural Support + Moving Average Overlap Zone, Low Entry Point)
Current Market Situation:
Bitcoin is consolidating around 109K after a pullback from 110K, still running within the overall upward trend line, currently grinding the bottom in the 109K~110K range.
Technical Signal:
The RSI indicator shows a potential bullish divergence. But to confirm this signal, two conditions must be met:
The price needs to hold above the current low point;
RSI needs to rebound to form support.
Key Focus Point:
110K is a tough nut to crack! If you truly want to break through it effectively, the current consolidation and buildup around the lower range (108.7K-109K) is particularly critical. This range can be seen as a short-term accumulation zone.
If the price can raise the lows and break through 110K again, it could likely trigger a rapid surge in the short term!
Importance of Support:
108.7K (Second Support): This is the confirmation level after breaking through the previous high. If it holds, there’s still hope for a short-term rebound.
107.8K (First Support): This is an important structural support level, overlapping with multiple moving averages, making it a relatively ideal area for low-risk entry.
Haitang's Wave Strategy (7.4):
Going Long: Reference the 107800-108700 range, you can enter in batches. Targeting 110000.
Going Short: Not considering for now.
Lastly, let's speak practically:
If you really want to learn something valuable from a blogger, you need to keep following them, instead of glancing at the market and rushing to conclusions. There are too many 'performers' in this market; today they flaunt a long position, tomorrow they summarize a short position, and it looks like they 'precision timed the market' every time, but it’s all just hindsight!
A truly worthwhile blogger to spend time on will have a trading logic that is:
Consistent and not self-contradictory;
Logical coherence, able to explain itself in a closed loop;
Resistant to scrutiny; it shouldn't only appear when the market moves.
Don't be blinded by those exaggerated profit screenshots and out-of-context 'divine predictions'! Calm down, observe long-term, and understand deeply so you can distinguish between true thinkers and mere dream sellers.