15 key events in just 30 days, easy to get lost and miss key setups
I tracked every event and planned my longs and shorts in advance
Hereâs the full July trading playbook with event breakdowns.
1/
â§ July will be one of the most explosive months for crypto in 2025
â§ Weâll see critical macro reports, major political shifts, ETF moves, and tariff shocks
â§ You can either react too late or position early with context and precision
â§ Hereâs the full July calendar and how to actually trade each event.
2/
â July 2 - Nonfarm Employment (USA)
â§ Key labor market report that shows how many jobs were added outside agriculture
â§ Strong jobs = stronger USD, weak jobs = more pressure to cut rates
â§ BTC prefers weaker prints â it signals economic slowdown and future QE
â§ Watch reaction to the headline number and fade fake moves if revisions surprise
3/
â July 2 - ENA Unlock ($11M)
â§ Small unlock but worth noting if liquidity is thin on the day
â§ ENA may experience short-term sell pressure from insiders or MM rotations
â§ This is not a high-conviction short - only trade it if volume spikes + trend shifts
â§ Safer to watch than to force trades here
4/
â July 3 - Unemployment Rate + Initial Jobless Claims
â§ Fed tracks these two weekly - Julyâs data comes right after the NFP report
â§ If jobless claims rise + unemployment ticks up = markets will scream âCUT NOWâ
â§ This is a setup for BTC longs - especially if DXY drops on weak data
â§ Consider entering before CPI if labor market shows cracks
5/
â July 4 - U.S. Independence Day (Markets Closed)
â§ All traditional markets shut down but crypto runs 24/7
â§ Historically, July 4 is prone to sharp BTC moves on low liquidity
â§ Avoid overleveraging - spikes are common, but traps even more so
â§ Play defensively, or step aside until volume returns
6/
â July 6-7 - BRICS Summit
â§ Major geopolitical gathering of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa
â§ Talks may escalate around de-dollarization, oil trade, or a BRICS stablecoin
â§ If USD is attacked publicly - BTC, gold, and energy will benefit
â§ Long BTC and CNH-denominated assets if summit leans anti-dollar
7/
â July 9 - End of U.S.-China Tariff Pause
â§ 90-day ceasefire ends - and political pressure is high to act âtoughâ on China
â§ New tariffs = risk-off across all markets - crypto will get hit hard
â§ Donât wait for the headline - start hedging beforehand if chatter heats up
â§ If tariffs drop, short NASDAQ and layer short ETH/BTC ratios
8/
â July 9 - FOMC Minutes (June)
â§ Deep insight into how the Fed is thinking mid-cycle
â§ Market expects dovish tones - so any hawkish surprise could kill risk appetite fast
â§ If they hint at September cuts, itâs a green light to deploy long positions
â§ BTC tends to move in first 15 minutes after release - be quick or wait for retests
9/
â July 15 - CPI USA
â§ Most important inflation report this summer
â§ A soft CPI print = confirmation bias for QE and Fed cuts
â§ A hot print = dollar spike, crypto dump, especially ETH
â§ Position long into CPI only if labor data has already cracked earlier in month
10/
â July 15 - STRK Unlock ($15M)
â§ Mid-size unlock might trigger localized sell pressure on Starknet
â§ Monitor on-chain flows if whales unstake or LPs withdraw, expect follow-through
â§ Ideal for short scalps only if paired with volume dump and technical breakdown
â§ Donât overcommit - STRK is illiquid and traps fast
11/
â July 18 - TRUMP Unlock ($462M)
â§ Absolutely massive unlock - likely top 3 for the whole year
â§ This is a farm-dump token with heavy whale concentration and cult following
â§ Perfect setup for aggressive short - especially if price pumps before unlock
â§ Watch 15m chart - first rug is often fakeout, second one is the real flush
12/
â July 22 - Google & Tesla Earnings
â§ Not directly crypto but tech earnings set tone for macro risk-on flows
â§ If results disappoint, expect NASDAQ dump, dragging BTC with it
â§ If both beat, rotation into risk will follow - long altcoins
â§ Use post-earnings volatility to scalp BTC correlations
13/
â July 29 - Microsoft Earnings
â§ Same logic as tweet above but with AI and cloud angle
â§ MSFT weakness = tech correction = short-term risk-off in crypto
â§ If AI growth slows, NVDA and BTC will both take hits
â§ Consider hedging ETH or L2s before earnings drop
14/
â July 30 - FOMC Rate Decision
â§ Biggest event of the month - the Fed makes a fresh decision on interest rates
â§ Market pricing ~40% chance of a cut - post-CPI and jobs will finalize that
â§ If Powell cuts or signals QE - go long BTC, gold, LDO, SOL
â§ If he holds + sounds hawkish - fade everything, short ETH and tech-heavy alts
15/
â July 31 - Advance GDP Q2 (USA)
â§ Early look at how fast or slow the U.S. economy grew last quarter
â§ Weak GDP + weak labor = perfect combo for easing/QE narrative
â§ If GDP tanks - DXY drops, BTC pumps, rotation into âmacro hedgesâ begins
â§ This can be a delayed trade - often BTC reacts 12â24h later
16/
â§ July is not the time to stay passive or âjust DCAâ into the chop
â§ You need a scenario map and volatility plan every week
â§ From CPI to TRUMP unlocks to Fed decisions crypto will move fast and hard
â§ Be the one who front-runs, not the one who reacts late.