JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Chase & Co. expects stablecoins to reach $500 billion by 2028, down from trillion-dollar forecasts.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects the stablecoin market to grow to only $500 billion by 2028, sharply down from more optimistic forecasts that see it reaching trillions of dollars. In a memo published on Thursday, the bank described these high expectations as "very optimistic," citing limited evidence of mainstream payment adoption.
While stablecoins have expanded beyond their roots in cryptocurrency trading - sparking interest from fintech companies and traditional banks seeking faster settlement methods - JPMorgan Chase & Co. says usage is still heavily concentrated in trading and decentralized finance.
According to the memo, only about 6% of demand for stablecoins, or $15 billion, is currently tied to payment applications.
"The idea that stablecoins will replace traditional money for everyday use is still far from reality," the bank said.
The market size is currently estimated at around $250 billion. Although the recent passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. Senate is expected to provide some regulatory clarity, JPMorgan Chase & Co. remains cautious.
The bank pointed to ongoing barriers such as fragmented regulation, limited international acceptance, and a lack of compelling use cases outside of cryptocurrency markets.
Previous forecasts painted a much more optimistic picture. Standard Chartered predicted a market worth $2 trillion by 2028, while Bernstein recently forecasted that supply would grow to $4 trillion over the next decade.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. also rejected comparisons to the Chinese digital yuan or mobile platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay, saying: "Neither the rapid expansion of e-CNY nor the success of Alipay and WeChat Pay represent models for the future expansion of stablecoins."
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