Yesterday, US stock indices continued to hit new highs, and Bitcoin finally successfully challenged the $110,000 mark. Although it is somewhat regrettable that it did not follow the US stocks to set new highs, it has at least temporarily stabilized at the $109,000 level, turning the resistance point from the past two weeks into a support point. Although the US non-farm payrolls in June exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, which is not favorable for the narrative of interest rate cuts this month, the market has basically anticipated a high probability of rate cuts in September, thus driving the market upward.
However, the current momentum sustaining the rise of Bitcoin, aside from the expectation of US interest rate cuts, also has reasons stemming from the cryptocurrency market itself. Looking at Coinglass's exchange contract funding rate chart, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are at relatively low levels, indicating that there are more open short positions than long positions on exchanges. Meanwhile, the number of open contracts is also close to a yearly high, so if these short positions have not been reduced or liquidated, there is still some upward potential in the cryptocurrency market.
Due to today being the United States Independence Day holiday, US stocks closed early at 1 PM on Thursday, entering the weekend break. Additionally, Trump's big and beautiful plan has successfully passed, temporarily eliminating a short-term negative factor. Therefore, it is expected that there will not be significant turmoil in the market in the near future. Next week, July 9, is the deadline for the US to implement the reciprocal tariff suspension measures. Currently, the event that could affect market trends is this one, but it seems that there are no major roadblock issues, so we can temporarily expect the market's upward momentum to continue.
