2560 is the life-and-death line for ETH—if it holds up under the bright July sun, failing to do so may lead to torrential rain!



News Aspect: Macroeconomic Disturbances and On-Chain Signals Intertwined

  1. Non-Farm Payroll Data and Concerns of Liquidity Tightening
    Last night, U.S. Non-Farm Employment Data was released (July 3), although liquidity was weakened due to Independence Day holiday, the data exceeded expectations triggering market speculation about the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance. U.S. Treasury yields rose, pressuring risk assets, ETH briefly fell back to test the 2560 USD support. If inflation heats up subsequently (July 15 CPI), it may trigger a deeper correction.

  2. Escalating Risk Aversion from Political Conflicts
    The public dispute between Musk and Trump over the '5 Trillion Bill' continues to escalate, with Trump hinting at a review of Dogecoin (DOGE) causing regulatory concerns. Similar conflicts (in June) led to a 5.1% single-day crash in the crypto market, increasing short-term selling pressure on ETH.

  3. On-chain Capital Movements and Regulatory Implementation

    • Surge in Derivative Activity: ETH open interest increased to 34.8 billion USD (+6.76%), options trading volume skyrocketed by 92.92%, speculative demand supports price resilience.

    • EU MiCA Effective: New stablecoin regulations force funds to shift towards compliant Euro stablecoins, causing some liquidity to temporarily exit ETH trading pairs, suppressing breakout momentum.

Technical Aspect: Logic of Attack and Defense at 2560 Strong Support

  1. Key Support and Resistance Structure

    • 2560 USD Pivot: The 4-hour chart shows this position resonates with the 20/50/100/200 EMA cluster (2472-2506 USD), confirmed bullish defense after three tests last night.

    • 2620 USD Supply Zone: Strong resistance at the daily level, coinciding with the upper band of Bollinger Bands (2617 USD), breakout requires volume support.

  2. Momentum Indicator and Volume-Price Divergence

    • RSI Neutral to Strong: 30-minute chart RSI (58-62) is not overbought, leaving room for upward movement; however, 4-hour MACD histogram is shortening, indicating weakening upward momentum.

    • Volume Contradiction: Trading volume decreases as price rebounds, exposing weakness in upward momentum, caution against false breakouts is needed.

  3. Outlook on Patterns and Cycles

    • Bullish Flag Consolidation: The 30-minute chart is forming a flag pattern between 2560-2590, if it breaks out with volume above 2620, the target points to the 2685-2745 Fibonacci range.

    • Weekly Level Breakpoint: 0.5 Fibonacci Resistance (2745 USD) is a mid-term bull-bear dividing line, stabilizing here opens up space above 3000.

Key Indicator Overview

Indicator Value/Status Signal Interpretation: 4H EMA cluster at 2472-2506 USD is bullishly aligned, support is solid; 30m RSI 58-62 is neutral to strong, no overbought pressure; OI change +6.76% (34.8 billion USD) new funds entering, bullish; Bollinger Band (4H) upper band at 2617 USD breakout needs volume confirmation.

Sensus Personal Opinion: Focus and Strategy Plan for Bull-Bear Game

  1. Validity Logic of 2560 Support
    This position is not only a technical EMA dense area but also a psychological defense line—Polymarket data shows the probability of falling below 2300 USD is only 3.5%, and institutions have dense orders in the 2400-2420 USD range (e.g., BOSS Wallet suggests buy points at 2376/2402 USD), forming a 'liquidity moat'.

  2. Key Variables for Breakout Momentum

    • ETF Fund Flow: If BlackRock's ETH ETF replicates the 72 billion USD scale effect of the BTC ETF (currently unclear), it will become a catalyst for breakthrough.

    • Upgrade Expectations: Mid-2025 '*****' upgrade (Layer 2 expansion + fee mechanism optimization) if released positively in advance may activate the 'cup and handle' pattern to hit 3000 USD.

  3. Risk Warnings and Opportunity Layout

    • Short-term Downward Scenario: Losing 2560 and closing below 2530 on the 1-hour chart will trigger stop-loss tests in the 2510-2460 range, a short position may be taken.

    • Breakout Momentum Strategy: After breaking out with volume above 2620, gradually buy up to 2685, stop-loss at 2580; mid-term holdings need to wait for confirmation at the 2745 Fibonacci level.

2560 is ETH's fate line in July—if it holds, it may aim for 3000 driven by dovish inflation data and upgrade expectations; if it fails, beware of macro black swan events triggering a long squeeze.

Tonight's Watching Coordinates: The liquidity vacuum period during U.S. Independence Day may lead to unusual movements, if it stabilizes at 2580 and U.S. tech stocks rebound, ETH may test the 2620 resistance level. It is recommended to use dual-direction stop-loss orders (e.g., buy on breakout above 2580 / short on break below 2530) to manage volatility with a passive strategy.

Next Turning Point: July 15 U.S. CPI data release, if below expectations, ETH may start a major upward wave due to interest rate cut expectations—at that time, cup and handle pattern and Wyckoff accumulation structure may resonate, making a surge to 3200 USD not a fantasy.

In the battlefield of Sensus, 2560 is not just a number—it is the coordinate that buries bears! Follow Sensus, and it will guide you through the waves, clearing obstacles!