A tropical cyclone of long and short games is quietly taking shape in the collision of macro policies and token sell-off pressure.

🔄 One, Long and Short Game: Bitcoin's 'Silent Charge' and Market Caution

Bitcoin fluctuated around $109,300 today, once breaking through $109,700 last night, reaching a nearly three-week high. However, this surge hides divisions:

  • ​​Standard Chartered's $200,000 prediction​​: The bank's analysts predict Bitcoin will hit $200,000 in Q4, citing continuous buying by ETFs and 'Bitcoin Treasury' companies breaking the halving cycle's downward curse.

  • ​​Market sentiment, however, is exceptionally restrained​​: Futures premiums are below the 5% neutral threshold, and Chinese stablecoin premiums show a 1% discount (the largest since mid-May), reflecting Asian investors' lack of confidence in the uptrend.

    (Economic perspective: Market demand for hedging against 'Trump policy volatility' is offsetting the risk appetite brought by Fed rate cut expectations)

⚖️ Two, Policy Storm Eye: Three major events in July driving the market's lifeline

  1. ​​The 'Big and Beautiful' Act is landing: The $3.3 trillion expansionary budget plan in the U.S. is about to be signed, and the soaring deficit may​​ push up the value of scarce assets​​.

  2. ​​July 9 Tariff Lifeline: Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on Japanese goods, casting a shadow over the global trade war.

  3. ​Cryptocurrency executive order deadline (July 22)​​: The U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve plan may be revealed,​​National-level buying expectations are heating up​​.

⛓️ ​​Regulatory dichotomy​​: The SEC approved Grayscale's multi-asset ETF (including BTC/ETH/SOL/ADA/XRP), but suspended its conversion to a spot ETF application, while the independent ETF approvals for altcoins (ADA, AVAX, SOL/XRP) become the biggest suspense in mid to late July.

⚠️ Three, Token Unlocking Wave: $465 million selling pressure looming, exchanges delisting leads to panic selling.

July will become the year's largest token supply flood:

  • ​​$TRUMP (July 18): Unlocking $465 million, accounting for 25% of the total supply.

  • ​​$APT (July 12)​​: Unlocking $56 million

    Historical data shows that large unlocks often accompany​short-term price halving​​.

⚠️ More urgent risks: ​​Binance has delisted ALPHA, BSW, and four other tokens today​​, with delisted tokens plummeting over 50% in a single day. Holders must withdraw by September 3, otherwise their assets will be forcibly converted to stablecoins.

🎪 Four, Meme Carnival Counterattack: The 'Philosophical Victory' of Meaningless Tokens

When mainstream coins are in turmoil, the Meme sector quietly explodes:

  • ​​$USELESS (Bonk platform)​​: 24-hour increase of 24.89%, market cap surpassing $190 million, the concept is straightforward—'useless token'.

  • ​$PENGU (Solana chain): Driven by the VanEck Nasdaq bell ringing invitation event, weekly increase of 40.29%.

  • ​Fartcoin, BOOE​​: Weekly increases exceed 40%, confirming the capital attraction of 'subcultural consensus'.

​​Ironically​​: These Meme coins with no practical use cases are unexpectedly breaking through blood paths outside the 'AI + Narrative' track—​the market votes with real money: rejecting complexity and embracing absurdity​.

💡 Five, Trader's Survival Guide: Key Nodes and Hedging Strategies


  1. ​​Time window for market monitoring​​:

    • Non-farm payroll data release (today at 20:30) → If the unemployment rate exceeds the expected 4.3%, it may trigger favorable interest rate cut expectations.

    • Trump's tariff decision (by July 9) → Safe-haven demand may boost BTC.

  2. ​On-chain hedging tools are rising​​:

    Cross-chain protocol Echo token airdrop ignites participation, reflecting​​the surge in demand for Bitcoin DeFi​​Investors are hedging against single asset risks through​​cross-chain staking​​.

  3. ​​Top traders have differing strategies​​:

    • Vivian: Plans to bottom buy BTC at $104,444, betting on a weekly rebound.

    • Liying: Suggests a small long position at $105,885, with strict stop-loss.

    • Liu Yudong (Wave Theory): $102,245 might be a strong support level.

🌪️ Epilogue: Fable in the Eye of the Storm

During the 17th-century Dutch Tulip Mania, a captain insisted on buying bulbs at high prices during a stormy night. People laughed at him for being crazy, but he said:

​​“The storm will pass, but humanity's desire for scarcity and consensus will never sink.”​​

Later, that plant, 'Eternal Augustus', became a historical symbol—regardless of practical value, only because the world believes it is worth it.

Now that the Trump coin is about to unlock, the absurd rise of Meme coins, and Bitcoin dancing on the policy tightrope... the market is always reconstructing the definition of 'value'.


[Please follow this account for continued analysis and interpretation of current market information]

[This article does not constitute investment advice]

#BTC走势分析