JPMorgan expects a stablecoin market of $500 billion by 2028 — Laws, ETFs, and Tokenized T-bills drive the boom
🌐 Why–What–Impact
Recent research from JPMorgan estimates the capitalization of stablecoins at $500 – 750 billion by 2028, growing from today's $251 billion. The bank points to three dominoes that have already started to fall: new rules in the USA/EU, TradFi money flows filling ETF wrappers, and sustained payment demand from Visa to PayPal. In short, half a trillion no longer looks like monthly math.
🔑 Catalyst 1 — Clear regulation
GENIUS Act (USA): 100% reserve, periodic verification; House vote in July could solidify this.
MiCA (EU): Open from June 30; mandatory reserve disclosure forces issuers into the 'regulated zone.'
Banking licenses: Circle, Ripple, and Anchorage pursue national licenses + Fed master accounts, reducing counterparty risk.
🏦 Catalyst 2 — TradFi Capital through ETFs and Tokenized Treasury Bonds
Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs reach $136 billion in assets under management in 18 months; State Street claims that crypto funds will surpass metal ETFs.
Crypto 5 ETF (BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA) proves that multi-asset baskets can pass the SEC. Stablecoin ETFs ‘$1 = 1 share’ now look plausible.
The tokenized T-bill fund BUIDL from BlackRock is the largest in two months; JPMorgan believes that tokenized treasury bonds could rival China's bond stock by 2028.
⚙️ Catalyst 3 — Real payments in the world
Visa moved $225 million in USDC settlements across borders.
JPM Coin processes ≈ $1 billion/day for corporate treasuries.
PYUSD surpassed $1 billion in supply after expanding to Stellar and dropping SEC verification.
📈 JPMorgan's path to $500 billion
ETF adoption: One US stablecoin fund could absorb $160 billion.
Tokenization of RWA: T-bills on the blockchain, CP, gold add $120 billion.
BigTech speed lanes: Visa, PayPal, Stripe flows increase turnover by $100-150 billion.
⚠️ Risks that could derail success
• There is still no global accounting standard for reserve assets.
• Reserve scandals — like Tether 2021 — can still disrupt markets.
• DeFi leverage loops could trigger a 'double panic' in banks, warns BIS in 2024.
Dominoes are falling into place: legal clarity, expedited ETF processes (listings in 75 days), and tokenized treasury bonds are already gaining momentum. Watch for the vote on the GENIUS Act in the House, SEC listing standards, and RWA TVL; if they work, $500 billion may prove conservative — and the wildest ‘blue sky’ of Wall Street at $1 trillion could become a reality.
👉 Click $USDC or $USDT if you believe regulated income + 24/7 settlements make stablecoins the next fixed income boom.
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