I think we're now entering the most crucial time of the year or if not, the most crucial time in the cycle. Starting from today until the end of the year, we have to be very cautious. Not from the industry's perspective but it's more from the macro side. These are becoming my current concern in the market.
1. There will be the tariff deadline on July 9th, need to watch but it is very likely to be nothing burger.
- As we know that on the recent condition, we haven't seen any sign of significant deal coming on the trade deal and it's kind of worrying. It's also biased on the current condition whether the S&P500 tag above ATH is the price in for the bad tariff deal or not.
- Trump also stated that there is not likely a deal can come with Japan. This is also significant concern as Japan is one of the biggest trading partner with US.
2. There is a lot going on related to Powell's accusation
- I think, this is more of political movement that want to forced Powell to resign as soon as possible because current government in control doesn't like things that Powell is doing (Mr. Too late). However, if this thing escalate quickly, it could be a concern for the investors as they don't want any clash happening on the authorities.
- As per my analysis, I think that Powell is being targeted by the current government in control. Trump's side is like giving the Powell only 2 choice, it's whether to cut the rate or just resign.
3. Above all, what is becoming my biggest concern is the altcoins space.
- I've been sharing a lot of things about my pessimistic stance on the altcoins which is currently doesn't get liquidity in it.
- However, it looks like there is a glance of hope after we see some of the ETFs are now proposing altcoins. On the latest event, we see the Solana staking ETF took place. Although I know that this ETF is not the real ETF, it still doesn't attract any investors in it.
- If after this altcoins ETF summer finishes and the price of altcoins are still in the floor like now, I think that hope is gone for the altcoins season. It will take years to recover.
At last, I'm still becoming a bull in this current market condition and believe of my thesis that minimum of $120k /BTC before the end of the year as our company's base case scenario. However, I also want to remind you that during the upside movement, there will be a lot of events that can make the volatility to be very very extraordinary as well.
I'll give more update when I see certainty in the market condition.