#NFPWatch
🇺🇸 US June 2025 NFP Report (released July 3, 2025)
**+147,000 jobs** added vs. 110,000 expected, and above May's revised +144,000
Unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%
Average hourly earnings rose 3.7% YoY, a slight deceleration
Revisions: April and May gains increased by a combined +16,000
Sector breakdown (BLS):
Government added +73K (47K in state gov’t, 40K in education)
Health care added +39K
Private sector slowed to +74K—the weakest since Oct 2024
Average workweek shortened slightly to 34.2 hours, and labor force participation edged down to 62.3%
🔍 Market & Fed implications
The stronger-than-expected bounce has significantly reduced the odds of a Fed rate cut in July; markets now see only a ~5% chance, down from ~25–30% pre-release
Financial markets reacted with:
US dollar strengthening (~0.5–0.6%)
Bond yields rising 3–9 bps, especially at the short end
Equities mixed, S&P 500 & Nasdaq nudged up on robust sentiment
🧭 Summary
📊 Indicator June 2025 Consensus Impact
Nonfarm payrolls +147K 110K Stronger job growth than expected
Unemployment 4.1% 4.3% Labor market remains tight
Hourly earnings +3.7% YoY ~3.9% Slight deceleration
While headline job creation is solid, the slowdown in private-sector hiring (+74K) and other signs like falling participation and hours worked suggest underlying fragilities. Still, the Fed is now likely to pause rate cuts until later, shifting expectations toward late 2025 or beyond .
🔜 What's next?
The July 2025 NFP will release on Friday, August 1 2025 at 8:30 am ET
Keep an eye on upcoming ISM and PMI data, which will further shape the Fed narrative.
In short, the June report was strong enough to push any near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts off the table—though hidden signs of potential weakness warrant careful watching.