• What Is #NFPwatch?

“#NFPwatch” refers to monitoring the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report—a monthly snapshot of job creation excluding farm and public-sector employment. Released each first Friday at 8:30 am ET, it’s one of the most market-moving economic data points. It directly affects equities, Treasuries, the U.S. dollar, gold, and can shift expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy (binance.com).

⏱️ Today’s Expectations

  • Date & Time: July 3, 2025 at 8:30 am ET (12:30 UTC)

  • Forecast (June jobs): +120,000 to +140,000 (prev. +139,000 in May) (naga.com)

  • Unemployment rate predicted: 4.3% (up from 4.2%) (naga.com)

  • Average hourly earnings: ~+0.3–0.4% m/m, ~3.9% y/y (naga.com)

🧩 Why It Matters

  • Labor‐market momentum: Recent data suggest cooling—ADP reported a 33,000 drop in private‐sector jobs in June, heightening recession worries (marketwatch.com).

  • Fed policy signals: Cooling could reinforce expectations of a July rate cut; stronger data would support a pause (marketwatch.com).

  • Global backdrop: Long‐term concerns like an aging population and low immigration may constrain future job growth, complicating policy choices (reuters.com).

  • 🔍 Market Watchpoints

Job‐creation surprise: Higher-than-expected gains ➝ dollar & yields up; softer ➝ bonds/gold rally.

Unemployment rate: Rising jobless rate could fuel Fed rate cut bets.

Wage growth: Sustained wage inflation could delay cuts, limit bond upside.

Revisions: Large downward changes to prior months can amplify market impact.


• Markets are highly sensitive. A disappointing print (jobs under 120k, rising unemployment) could tilt the odds toward a July rate cut. Stronger data would justify current Fed rate pause expectations.

#NFPWatch #NFP