#NFPWatch Here’s a clear and comprehensive #NFPWatch update for you:
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📊 June 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) – Quick Summary
Headline: +147,000 jobs added — exceeding the ~110K consensus expectation
May was revised upward from +139K to +144K; April from +147K to +158K
Unemployment Rate: 4.1%, down from 4.2%
Average Hourly Earnings: +0.2% MoM, +3.7% YoY
Participation & Workweek: Participation steady at ~62.3%; average workweek 34.2 hours
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📉 What This Means
Labor Market: Still resilient—moderate cooling but not a sharp slowdown. Jobs additions align closely with the 12-month average (+146K)
Fed Policy Outlook: A stronger-than-expected NFP may push the Fed to delay or scale back planned rate cuts. Previously, some projections expected only two or three cuts this year—this strength complicates that scenario
Market Reaction: USD surged on stronger data; bond yields edged up. A soft NFP would have fueled USD weakness and gold gains, but today's robust reading halted that trend
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🔍 Context & Insights
1. Pre-release picture:
ADP showed a drop of –33K jobs — the weakest since early 2023, raising recession concerns
Market estimations ranged widely: forecasts included 85K (Goldman), ~110K consensus, whisper numbers around 96K
2. Historical trends:
June NFP has historically been volatile; average excludes outliers like 2020 COVID surge (~250K typical since 2010)
3. Other indicators:
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index fell to 45; initial jobless claims ticked up — pointing to labor market softening before NFP release
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📌 Takeaway for Markets
Forex: USD got a boost from resilient job growth and cooler wage inflation.
Bonds: Short-term yields rose, pricing in fewer rate cuts.
Equities: Mixed reaction possible—strong labor lessens odds of dovish Fed, but still benign overall.
Gold: Softened slightly after failing to trade on dovish hopes.
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✅ In a Nutshell
June's labor market remains steady but not overly tight. Job growth beating expectations while wage pressures moderate suggests the Fed may hold back on sharp easing. Market moves reflect a recalibration—USD and yields up, gold cooling, equities digesting the data.
Let me know if you'd like visuals on market reactions, deeper dives into sectoral trends, Fed forecasting, or comparisons with past cycles!
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