🌐 Why–What–Impact

JPMorgan’s latest research pegs stable-coin capitalisation at $500 – 750 B before 2028, up from today’s $251 B. The bank cites three dominos already tipping over: new U.S./EU rulebooks, TradFi money flooding ETF wrappers and on-chain T-bill funds, and nonstop payments demand from Visa-to-PayPal rails. In short, half a trillion no longer looks like moon-math.

🔑 Catalyst 1 — Clear Regulation

  • GENIUS Act (U.S.): 100 % reserve, periodic attestation; a House vote in July could lock it in.

  • MiCA (EU): Live since 30 Jun; mandatory reserve disclosure pushes issuers into a “regulated zone.”

  • Bank charters: Circle, Ripple and Anchorage chase national licences + Fed master accounts, lowering counter-party risk.

🏦 Catalyst 2 — TradFi Capital via ETFs & Tokenised Treasuries

  • Spot-BTC & ETH ETFs hit $136 B AUM in 18 months; State Street says crypto funds will eclipse metals ETFs.

  • Crypto 5 ETF (BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA) proves multi-asset baskets can pass the SEC. A “$1 = 1 share” stable-coin ETF is now plausible.

  • BlackRock’s BUIDL T-bill token fund is the largest in two months; JPMorgan reckons tokenised Treasuries could rival China’s bond stash by 2028.

⚙️ Catalyst 3 — Real-World Payments Traction

  • Visa has moved $225 M of USDC settlements cross-border.

  • JPM Coin clears ≈ $1 B/day for corporate treasuries.

  • PYUSD crossed $1 B supply after expanding to Stellar and shaking off SEC scrutiny.

📈 JPMorgan’s Path to $500 B

  • ETF adoption: A single U.S. stable-coin fund could soak up $160 B.

  • RWA tokenisation: On-chain T-bills, CP, gold add $120 B.

  • BigTech rails: Visa, PayPal, Stripe flows boost float by $100–150 B.

⚠️ Risks That Could Derail the Run

• No global accounting standard yet for reserve assets.

• Reserve scandals—think Tether 2021—can still unpeg markets.

• DeFi leverage loops could trigger a “double-bank run,” BIS warned in 2024.

The dominoes are lining up: legal clarity, ETF fast-tracks (75-day listings), and tokenised Treasuries already snowballing. Track the House GENIUS vote, SEC listing standards, and RWA TVL; if they click, $500 B could prove conservative—and Wall Street’s wildest $1 T “blue-sky” may edge into view.


👉 Tap $USDC or $USDT if you think regulated yield + 24/7 settlement makes stable-coins the next fixed-income boom.

💬 Half-trillion inevitable or hype cycle? Share your take & Follow for the policy countdown!

#StablecoinSurge #GENIUSAct #MiCA #RWA #WriteToEarn

Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice.