The 'Capability Trap' of the Crypto Market: Why Bull Markets Are the Biggest Enemy of Retail Investors?
In the crypto world, the most dangerous aspect is often not the winter of a bear market, but the deadly illusion brought about by a bull market. We have seen too many such stories:
A trader who precisely timed DeFi mining, plunging all his wealth into the MEME coin market, ultimately losing everything in a KOL shout-out from a dog-headed strategist;
A lucky individual who made ten times his investment in blue-chip NFT projects, immediately leveraged his profits to bet on the AI sector, only to become a meal for quantitative institutions.
This 'winner's curse' is quietly consuming every bull market:
Skill Mismatch Trap
On-chain analysts trading MEME coins using fundamental methods
Quantitative traders using mathematical models to play with shitcoin projects
Arbitrageurs using airdrop strategies for contract trading
Every sector is a brand new casino, but gamblers always bring the same chips
Survivorship Bias Amplifier
The top 100 traders on exchanges
90% will disappear after 6 months
99% will be eliminated after 12 months
Those once shining yields are merely experience cards randomly distributed by the market
Cognitive Delay Effect
When a certain sector starts to show 'easy money' cases
It is often already at the tail end of the market
Early participants have long cashed out and left
Later participants not only take over the tokens but also the entire narrative logic
Smart money is always playing three games:
Participating in new narratives with profits (capital is always off the field)
Exchanging time for cognition (observe first, then bet)
Using position management to combat uncertainty (5% to test, 95% to wait)
Remember: in the crypto market, living long is 100 times more important than making quick profits. Your ultimate opponent is not market volatility, but your own greed that has been fattened by the bull market.