according to materials from the site - By CoinPedia News
In his latest blog post titled 'Quid Pro Stablecoin', Arthur Hayes provides a clear analysis of the current macroeconomic landscape and how it might affect the cryptocurrency market. He warns that cryptocurrency prices may move sideways - or slightly lower - between the present moment and the economic symposium in Jackson Hole in August.
Hayes believes a market correction is likely in the near future. Given the recent rise in Bitcoin prices, traders may take profits while awaiting clearer signals from the Federal Reserve. He highlights one key factor: if the U.S. Treasury starts replenishing its General Account (TGA), it could withdraw liquidity from the system, putting pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Drawing on past market cycles and changes in sentiment, Hayes predicts a temporary drop in Bitcoin's price to around $90,000, which could potentially shake out weak hands before the next rise.
He also warns that this liquidity contraction could create a 'summer lull' - a period of sideways or downward movement - at least until the event in Jackson Hole at the end of August. If macroeconomic conditions worsen, Hayes may reduce the risk of Maelstrom in Bitcoins, although the fund has already exited its illiquid altcoin positions.
Traditional banks and stablecoins may drive the next bull run
According to Hayes, this cycle is characterized by the increasing role of traditional banks in cryptocurrency. As the U.S. government signals support for stablecoins - especially after the Senate passed the GENIUS Act - banks like JPMorgan may soon launch their own tokens backed by U.S. dollars.
Unlike existing stablecoins like USDC or Tether, these bank-issued tokens will have full regulatory support and access to the Federal Reserve system.
Hayes emphasizes that the promotion of stablecoins is not only about consumer safety - it is also a strategy by the U.S. government to increase control over the cash flows of cryptocurrencies. This shift could change how liquidity moves in the cryptocurrency market and force issuers to comply with stricter reserve requirements or obtain special licenses.
Hayes calls these events a 'turning point'. He explains that regulated bank stablecoins will allow banks to direct retail deposits into short-term U.S. Treasury bonds without violating capital rules. This could act as a new form of quantitative easing, injecting fresh liquidity into the markets - without any official intervention from the Federal Reserve.
Hayes estimates that if even a portion of the $17 trillion currently held in U.S. bank deposits moves into these new stablecoins, it could lead to demand for Treasury securities amounting to $6.8 trillion. This massive wave of liquidity won’t be limited to bonds - it could spill over into cryptocurrency and tech stocks, potentially triggering the next major bull market.
As of July 3, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is showing mixed movements. Bitcoin is holding around $107,000, recovering from recent drops below $100,000. Ethereum has seen a noticeable spike, reaching $2600 USDT, while altcoins like XRP, Solana, and TRON are showing relative strength. This indicates a certain resilience in the market despite Hayes' prediction of a 'summer lull'.
Are Arthur Hayes' predictions about Bitcoin realistic?
Arthur Hayes' predictions are considered bold and often controversial; however, he openly admits when he is wrong. While his short-term forecasts may be volatile, his long-term predictions, such as Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2028, are based on his macroeconomic analysis of global liquidity, U.S. debt, and the potential for a new form of quantitative easing through regulated stablecoins. Many analysts consider his macroeconomic perspective influential, even if his precise price targets are ambitious.
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