$BTC Evening Thoughts:
The 110,000 big pancake has finally arrived, and it's been a tough wait for you! Only the big pancake never disappoints anyone.
I wonder how those who shorted the big pancake up to 110,000 are doing? Do you find yourself wanting to short even more as the pancake rises, thinking it requires money to push up, and immediately believing it can't surpass the previous high? Because many retail traders have this mindset, that's why the big pancake could be sent directly to the high point of 110,000. Everyone must remember that once a trend is formed, it is hard to change; going with the flow is effortless, while going against it leads to regression.
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Let's talk about the chart: The Fibonacci 1:1 upward target for the big pancake on the hourly level is 113,176. Whether it can reach that, I don't know, but I do know that once the big pancake breaks the previous high and creates a new high, there will be no resistance above, how much it wants to rise and how it wants to rise all depends on the big pancake's mood.
I will predict a scenario for everyone: The big pancake will rise near the previous high and pause, consolidating at a high level for a few days, making those who are short feel that the big pancake is losing momentum, causing them to frantically go short. Once the short liquidity accumulates, the big pancake will surge to the Fibonacci 1.618 position of 116,069, taking out all the shorts, and then the big pancake will naturally pull back and start to oscillate. Let's see if this scenario I mentioned will come true.
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The big pancake volume breaks above 109,951; the aggressive traders can chase long on the right side, while the conservative traders look at 109,187 for volume breakdown and a failed recovery to chase short on the right side.
If the big pancake stands firm above 110,370 after breaking through, we can continue to look up at 111,202-111,959-new highs; as long as it stabilizes above 110,370, the previous high must be touched, and no one can stop what I said.
On the 4-hour level, if 109,166 breaks down, we look down to 108,430-107,429, any retracement that does not break below 108,430 indicates that the bulls are still strong.
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Continuing to look at the chart: The yellow trend line on the 4-hour level has already been broken and has completed a retest confirming the support is valid to continue upwards. What does it mean to retest and confirm the support is valid? This trend line is the answer; draw it yourself and take a good look. The only resistance above the big pancake is at this position marked by the white box, 110,429, which is the previous high on the left side. If it can break and stabilize at this position, then challenging the previous high is just a matter of minutes. Tonight is the last trading day of the week for US stocks, and Friday is the US National Day, followed by a three-day weekend on Saturday and Sunday, so if there's energy tonight, make the most of it! Keep your stops tight, and see you next time.