Recently, Bitcoin has been hovering above $100,000, appearing calm, but there's considerable activity on-chain!

Short-term prices are not rising, nor are they falling much; this 'mysterious oscillation' actually hides many clues. Not only are whales secretly reallocating, but the BTC inventory on exchanges has also hit a 7-year low 📉, suggesting the market is 'brewing something'...

Let's sort out what has really happened behind this price consolidation.

📊 Price consolidation, but there are undercurrents on-chain...

BTC is currently priced at approximately $109,373, up 2.07% in the last 24 hours, but the overall trend remains relatively 'gentle'.

Although it's not far from historical highs, the market is clearly in a stage of 'wait-and-see + rebalancing'.

According to CryptoQuant's on-chain analyst Kripto Mevsimi, the end of June coincides with the end of Q2, a time when institutions often reallocate their assets.

This explains why there has suddenly been a large-scale realization of profits + losses on-chain:

✅ $641 million realized profit

❌ $1.24 billion realized loss

This is not just random volatility; it could very well be a deliberate 'institutional reallocation' move.

🐳 Old whales vs new whales: the divergence is becoming more apparent

Interestingly, different types of whales have shown quite different behavior during this round of volatility:

  • Newly entered short-term whales (possibly just entered in Q2) show obvious panic, with some taking profits and others cutting losses, making them quite unstable.

  • Old whales are much steadier, netting $91 million in profit with almost no losses.

This differentiation indicates that old capital is still 'calmly fishing,' while short-term speculators may have begun to exit. This likely suggests that the market is about to enter a 'low volatility, low confidence' cooling period.

💰 Supply hits a 7-year low, is BTC facing an 'invisible tightening'?

If you think whale reallocations are just routine operations, this set of data might make you rethink the trend 👇

In June, the BTC holdings on exchanges dropped from 3.09 million to 2.8 million, a decrease of 9.4%, which is the lowest level since 2017!

In other words:

Currently, only 14% of Bitcoin is circulating on exchanges, while the remaining 86% is either 'lying low' on-chain or held long-term!

What does this mean? This indicates that 'supply tightening' is quietly happening—liquidity is getting lower, selling pressure is reducing, while demand (such as ETFs and institutional buying) is slowly increasing.

🧨 Is the price stagnation a buildup of energy?

You might ask: Why is the price still stalling despite so many positive factors?

👉 An important reason is that over the past few months, Bitcoin's rise has largely been driven by the derivatives market (futures, leverage), rather than spot buying.

According to the data, the trading ratio of spot to derivatives once dropped to 0.05 (a 7-month low), indicating that many are speculating on contracts while few are buying coins.

But! Recently, this ratio has been quietly rising, with spot funds starting to return, which may signal that the market is beginning to 'move away from leveraged speculation and return to real demand.'

🧠 Long-term holder (LTH) profits have also decreased, but it's not pessimistic.

Another analyst from CryptoQuant pointed out that although Bitcoin's price is approaching historical highs, the 'unrealized profits' of long-term holders are actually declining, currently around 220%.

In March and December 2024, the unrealized profits reached 300%+ and 350%+ respectively, and it’s clear we haven’t reached the 'crazy zone' yet.

This indicates that the market hasn’t truly overheated yet, and the speculative sentiment hasn’t peaked. If Bitcoin is to touch the cycle top again, it may need to rise above $140,000 to 'activate' these potential profits.

✅ To summarize, we see three signals behind this BTC oscillation:

🚀 Where is the next key point?

If BTC can effectively break through the psychological barrier of $111,000, and spot buying continues to increase, it may welcome a new round of upward movement.

But if the volume doesn't follow, or if macro sentiment turns bearish, then it will likely continue to oscillate within the $100K-$110K range.

📌 Do you think this 'quiet' BTC is about to surge? Or is it going to stagnate?
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! 👇

✍️ DYOR, manage your risk, and may everyone set sail smoothly in the crypto world! 🌊

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