Arthur Hayes: Stablecoins are a "new weapon" of finance, potentially bringing trillions of dollars in liquidity support to Bitcoin in the future
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently wrote that the U.S. Treasury's support for stablecoins issued by TBTF (Too Big to Fail) banks is one of its key policies in addressing the massive fiscal deficit and pressure on national debt. He believes this will unlock up to $6.8 trillion in short-term Treasury bill purchasing power and drive up the financial markets.
At the same time, if the Federal Reserve ends interest on reserves (IORB), an additional $3.3 trillion will flow into the Treasury market. Arthur Hayes stated that while this policy combination is not traditional quantitative easing (QE), it will have an equivalent upward push for fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin.
He predicts that after the passage of the Trump spending bill and the raising of the debt ceiling, the U.S. Treasury will replenish the Treasury General Account (TGA) by issuing bonds, which may temporarily suppress market liquidity. Bitcoin may consolidate around $100,000, with a pullback low in the $90,000 to $95,000 range. However, after liquidity recovers in early September, a new upward trend will begin.
Arthur Hayes concluded that the real narrative of stablecoins is not about FinTech companies, but rather about TBTF banks using stablecoins to reconstruct compliance, cost, and Treasury purchasing power in a "financial weaponization innovation." He advises investors to "go long on Bitcoin, go long on JPMorgan," and embrace this new liquidity cycle led by the Treasury.$XRP