Dear crypto friends, tonight at 8:30 PM, the US June Non-Farm Payroll report is about to be released!

This data storm, dubbed by Wall Street as the 'July Rate Cut Life and Death Battle', is pushing BTC and ETH to the cliff's edge—unexpected collapse of ADP employment data, internal division of the Federal Reserve, Trump’s crazy pressure... Every detail of this grand drama could instantly shrink or skyrocket your wallet!

1. ADP 'explodes': Is the job market really collapsing?

On Wednesday evening, the US ADP employment data crashed: The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023! More alarming, service sector employment plummeted by 66,000, and the education and healthcare sectors have laid off employees for three consecutive months, even the previously strong financial sector cut 14,000 jobs.

The bloody reality behind the data:

Companies are reluctant to hire: Trump's tariff policy has made bosses collectively 'lie flat', the number of job vacancies has declined for five consecutive months; workers are trembling: Initial jobless claims have soared to a three-and-a-half-year high, and continuing claims are nearing the peak of the pandemic in 2021; wage growth hides risks: wages for job changers have risen by 6.8%, but signs of a layoff wave are already emerging.

Federal Reserve infighting: Rate cut faction vs. hawkish faction tearing each other apart!

In the face of collapsing employment data, the Federal Reserve is in turmoil:

Dovish representative Goolsbee (voter for next year): 'Inflation has surrendered, we must cut rates immediately! Consumer credit card default rates are soaring, economic pressure is enormous!' Hawkish bigwig Bowman (permanent voter): 'Inflation is not dead yet! Absolutely no rate cut in 2024, let's talk about 2025!' Trump’s divine assistance: Directly attacking Powell: 'Immediately cut rates to 1%! Otherwise, I will replace you!'

Latest updates:

Powell is forced to compromise: 'July rate cut? Let the data speak!' (Market betting probability surged from 20% to 25%) Goldman Sachs changed its stance: 'Rate cut in September is a certainty, three cuts before the end of the year!' CME futures indicate: The probability of a rate cut in September has exceeded 90%, but July remains the 'Schrödinger's rate cut.'

Impact on the crypto circle: Disagreement within the Federal Reserve has trapped BTC in the 'roller coaster' curse! Over the past month, every time news of policy divergence broke, BTC's volatility soared directly above 200%.

Tonight's Non-Farm Payroll: The 'Death List' that determines BTC's fate

Market expectations:

New jobs: 110,000 (previous value 139,000) Unemployment rate: 4.3% (previous value 4.2%) Key signal: If data is below 100,000, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July will exceed 50%!

Three scenarios:

  1. Data cools (at 100,000):

    • Dollar collapse, gold surges, BTC rockets to $115,000!

    • Institutional funds flooding in, ETH leads altcoins to take off collectively.

  2. Data meets expectations (100,000-150,000):

    • Federal Reserve remains still, BTC trades sideways, the contract market is bloodily clearing leverage.

  3. Data exceeds expectations (>150,000):

    • Rate cut expectations shattered, BTC plummets to $100,000, altcoins face another wave of zeroing!

Historical reference:

August 2024 Non-Farm Payroll data exceeded expectations, BTC plunged 12% in one day; December 2023 Non-Farm Payroll data shocked, BTC surged 25% within a week.

The K-line judge: Painful experiences of being tortured by the market! How to survive this storm?

  1. Spot players:

    • Radical: In the 30 minutes before the data release, use 10% positioning for short-term speculation (go long above 109,000, go short below 103,000);

    • Conservative: Wait for the data to come out and operate in the direction of the market (if rate cut expectations rise, go all in on BTC).

  2. Contract players:

    • Strict stop-loss! Tonight's volatility may exceed 300%, positions with more than 10x leverage will definitely be liquidated;

    • Pay close attention to the BTC/ETH ratio: If the data is bearish, ETH's decline may be greater than BTC's (institutions prioritize selling high-risk assets).

  3. Long-term holders:

    • Ignore short-term noise and focus on changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet (if tapering starts in September, BTC may usher in a three-year bull market).

An eight-year journey in finance, an exclusive guide from pioneers in the crypto circle: Insight into the market, steady progress, pay attention to the K-line judge to learn how to steadily appreciate, risk and opportunity coexist in investment, blind operations are a big taboo in the crypto circle!#美股代币化

$BTC