“The K-line of ETH is the war book written by the main forces for retail investors—today's watershed battle, either a desperate counterattack or a sea of corpses! Are you ready?”
1. Technical perspective: Watershed battle, a life-and-death struggle between bulls and bears.
Key levels locked in:
First support at $2367: historical strong support; if broken, bulls will collapse, targeting the psychological level of $2300.
Second support at $2450 (current battlefield): bulls and bears repeatedly contest; if it holds, it may trigger a rebound, targeting $2550-$2600.
Watershed at $2533: previous high resistance level; if broken, it opens up upside potential, targeting $2600-$2700; if blocked, the risk of a pullback increases significantly.
Volume and price anomalies:
Recent volume has shrunk, and prices are volatile, indicating cautious games between bulls and bears at key levels.
Warning signals: If volume breaks below $2367, it may trigger panic selling; if volume breaks above $2618, it may trigger FOMO sentiment.
Indicator warning:
MACD is close to the zero axis, RSI oscillates in the middle, indicating a trend reversal is imminent.
Operational tips: Pay attention to the gains and losses around $2450 in the short term, and closely watch for a break above $2618 in the mid-term.
2. News perspective: Three major bombs to explode the market.
Countdown to Ethereum ETF approval:
The SEC's final ruling on the Ethereum ETF enters a 48-hour countdown; if approved, it will unleash hundreds of billions in funds, and ETH may surge to $3000!
Associated logic: The approval of the ETF will significantly enhance compliance liquidity, and institutional funds entering may drive ETH to lead the market.
Aftermath of the Dencun upgrade:
Post-upgrade Layer 2 fees have drastically decreased, but the market has already priced in the good news, so beware of the risk of 'buying the expectation and selling the fact.'
Operational strategy: If there is no new narrative after the upgrade, there may be a short-term pullback; if new applications explode, it may continue to be strong.
Federal Reserve policy shift:
Expectations for interest rate cuts are rising; a weaker dollar may push ETH to break resistance levels.
Risk warning: If the interest rate cut does not happen, it may trigger a 'good news is fully priced in' type of pullback.
3. K-line judge · Writing as a decision: A life-and-death battle, a choice of blood and fire.
ETH is currently on the eve of a 'watershed battle,' with technical and news factors resonating, and a trend reversal is imminent!
Optimistic scenario: ETF approved + expectations of interest rate cuts, ETH breaks above $2618, starting a major uptrend, targeting $3000! Pessimistic scenario: ETF rejected + technical breakdown, ETH breaks below $2367, or retests the $2000-$2200 range. Core logic: ETF approval is the biggest short-term variable that determines whether ETH is 'leaping over the dragon gate' or 'falling into the abyss.'
3. K-line warrior · Peak bomb strategy: dancing on the edge of a knife, precise unwrapping!
Lightly trapped investors:
Strategy 1: If the cost is above $2500, it is recommended to reduce positions by 50% near $2618, and replenish as it falls back to around $2450.
Strategy 2: If the cost is below $2400, hold and observe; stop loss if it breaks below $2367, and add positions if it breaks above $2618.
Heavily trapped investors:
Risk control is a priority: Immediately reduce positions to below 30%, using rebounds to gradually reduce positions in the $2550-$2600 range.
Remaining position: Set a trailing stop loss and follow the trend.
Cash watchers:
Right-side trading: After the ETF approval, enter when it breaks above $2618 and confirms on a pullback; if rejected, short on a rebound after breaking below $2367.
Left-side ambush: Pay attention to support in the $2200-$2300 range; if a 'long lower shadow + increased volume' signal appears, you may lightly test the long side.
5. K-line judge: The painful experience of being abused by the market to tears! The dance on the edge of a knife.
The ETF approval result will trigger violent fluctuations; it is recommended to set strict stop losses to avoid leverage! Remember: 'In a bull market, one earns money from trends; in a bear market, one earns money from volatility; and in a sideways market—one earns money from discipline!'
“The drums of the watershed have sounded; ETH's destiny is at stake in this battle! The way to unlock positions lies in understanding the intentions of the main forces and, more importantly, in protecting your own capital. Let us strive together and quietly wait for the storm to pass!”#美股代币化
I am the K-line judge, focusing on cryptocurrency market analysis and practical strategies, speaking through K-lines! Follow me to avoid getting lost, and let's seize market opportunities together!