According to BlockBeats, simulations conducted by JPMorgan's trading division indicate that if the upcoming employment data reflects a weakness similar to the recent ADP report, the U.S. stock market may face intense selling pressures. JPMorgan identified potential market reactions under different scenarios:

If new jobs range between 85,000 and 105,000, the S&P 500 index could decline by 0.25% to 1.5%. If the number falls below 85,000, the index could drop by 2% to 3%.

The report warns that in the worst-case scenarios, the market could face stagflation risks, characterized by slowing economic growth accompanied by rising inflation, rendering fiscal and monetary policies ineffective. The report emphasizes that as long as non-farm jobs exceed 100,000, the stock market is likely to remain supported. However, employment data has previously exceeded expectations, and this phenomenon may recur. JPMorgan expects that if the number of new jobs ranges between 125,000 and 145,000, the S&P 500 index may rise by between 0.75% and 1.25%. If the number exceeds 145,000, the index gains could expand to between 1% and 1.5%. #BlockBeats #ADP