"In the turbulent waves of the crypto market, true traders never gamble on trends but are believers in logic - today's BTC consolidation is precisely the clear signal of the main force's layout!"
1. Technical analysis: Bull-bear game in range oscillation
Key levels locked:
Current BTC is positioned in the $105,000-$109,700 range, with $105,000 as the lifeline for bulls (historical support + moving average convergence area), and $109,700 as the warning line for bears (previous high resistance + volume exhaustion point).
Key attention: If it breaks below $10,500, it may trigger a technical sell-off, with lower targets looking towards the $102,000-$100,000 range; if it breaks above $10,970, it may initiate a new round of upward movement, targeting the $115,000-$120,000 area.
Volume-price anomalies:
Increased trading volume but stagnant prices show a deepening divergence between bulls and bears; be wary of the risk of price changes after 'high volume, stagnant price'.
Operation tips: If the price falls to the $106,500-$107,000 range and trading volume shrinks, it can be considered a short-term speculative point.
Indicator signals:
MACD shows signs of a top divergence, RSI oscillates around 60, suggesting a weakening upward momentum and an increased probability of a short-term pullback.
Risk control advice: Set $105,000 as the stop-loss for long positions and $10,970 as the stop-loss for short positions.
2. Major events driving market sentiment
SOL ETF approval window:
The SEC's approval of the Solana ETF is in the final stage; if approved, it may trigger a frenzy in altcoins and indirectly boost BTC sentiment. Related logic: The increase in altcoin activity usually accompanies BTC's consolidation, be wary of the capital inflow after the 'vampire effect'.
Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations:
The market bets on a probability increase for a rate cut in July; expectations of a weaker dollar may push BTC to break resistance levels.
Operational strategy: If the interest rate cut signal is clear, add positions accordingly; if the expectations fail, beware of the risk of 'buying the expectation, selling the fact'.
UK stablecoin regulation:
The FCA's new regulations increase compliance costs, which may negatively impact small coins in the short term, leading to capital inflow into mainstream assets like BTC.
Structural opportunities: Pay attention to unusual movements in the stablecoin sector, such as changes in USDT and USDC premium rates.
3. K-line judge · The survival rules in a volatile market
Currently, BTC is in a sensitive zone of 'resistance above, support below'; technical indicators show a pullback pressure, but there may be potential good news on the fundamental side. Be wary of two extreme situations:
Trend continuation: If it breaks above $10,970, it may replicate the classic movement of 'consolidation - breakout - acceleration', targeting $120,000. Trend reversal: If it breaks below $105,000, be wary of a 'bulls stampede' triggering a chain reaction, with lower support levels referencing the $100,000 round number.
4. K-line judge: Exclusive supreme strategy: partitioned operations, respect the market
Lightly trapped positions:
Strategy 1: If the cost is above $108,000, it is recommended to reduce positions by 30% near $10,970, and to replenish when it falls back to the $106,500-$107,000 range.
Strategy 2: If the cost is below $10,500, hold and observe. Stop loss if it breaks below $10,500; add positions if it breaks above $10,970.
Heavy positions trapped:
Risk control first: Immediately reduce the position to below 50%, use the rebound to gradually reduce positions in the $109,000-$109,500 range.
Remaining position: Set a trailing stop-loss (e.g., 3% stop-loss below $10,500), follow the trend operations.
Empty position observers:
Right-side trading: Patiently wait for direction choice; enter after breaking $10,970 and confirming with a pullback, or short during a rebound after breaking below $10,500.
Left-side ambush: Focus on the support range of $102,000-$100,000; if a 'long lower shadow + low volume' signal appears, consider small positions to go long.
5. K-line judge: A blood-stained record of trading ups and downs: respect the market, discipline is paramount
In July, the market faces significant events such as the SOL ETF approval and the Federal Reserve's decision, which may lead to soaring volatility. It is recommended to strictly set stop-losses, avoid excessive leverage, and remember 'trend is king, discipline is paramount.'
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